Thread by @Yascha_Mounk

The defeatistism I’ve seen on Twitter for the past twelve hours is deeply and dangerously wrong: Democrats have just won a huge victory!

Here are six big takeaways from the best day for the American republic since that traumatic Election Day in 2016.

[Thread.]

1) The Polls are Alright

Polls have consistently shown Trump to be very unpopular. But since they got it wrong in 2016, it was natural to worry they might still be underplaying his support.

Is Trump more popular than he appears? Does he play three-dimensional chess?

No and no.

Democrats were predicted to do very well in the midterms. They did even better.

So today is a strong reason to believe that the polls don’t have a systematic bias. And since over 50% of Americans consistently disapprove of Trump, he is eminently beatable in 2020.

2) Democrats Did Well in the Senate

I know, I know: Republicans kept control of the Senate. In fact, they even added some seats. Surely it’s absurd to claim that this represents a success for Democrats?

Actually, no, it isn’t.

Dems faced steep odds: Because they did so well in 2012, they needed 28 out of 33 seats to win a majority.

They didn’t. But they did win at least 21 seats. And the map looks much better for them in 2020: If they win half of all races then, they’ll take control of the Senate.

3) The Midwest Isn’t Lost to Democrats

After 2016, it was tempting to think that the political map had changed forever: Midwestern states like Michigan had become red territory. To win a majority, Dems needed formerly red states with rising minority populations like Arizona.

The midterms upend this narrative for a bad and a good reason.

The bad reason: Despite running strong campaigns, Democrats performed worse than expected in states like Florida (Gillum), Georgia (Abrams), and Texas (O’Rourke) on which they had pinned high hopes.

The good reason: Dems won back a *ton* of territory in the Midwest:

* They beat Scott Walker, one of the most conservative governors

* They beat Kris Kobach, one of the most Trumpist governors

* They won big victories in Senate races in MI, MN, OH, PA and WI.

4) Swing Voters Are Alive and Well

Republicans only played to their base. They lost.

Dems ran a more supple strategy, playing to the base in safe districts while appealing to the middle in swing districts. They won big: Suburban voters deserted the Republican Party in droves.

How did Dems do it?

Candidates like Amy Klobuchar appealed to moderates without being milquetoast: They condemned Trump’s racist rhetoric. They promised better wages & health care. And they emphasized what Americans have in common while avoiding talk of socialism or revolution.

So Democrats should, as I recently argued, not choose between mobilizing the base and appealing to moderates.

The midterms show that it’s possible to do both at the same time.
slate.com/news-and-polit…

5) It Doesn’t Take a Genius to Beat Trump

There’s a huge danger in complacency. Clinton and Obama both won re-election after suffering big setbacks in midterms. Trump could yet pull off the same feat.

But there’s also a huge danger in defeatism. The midterms show that Trump is deeply vulnerable.

If Dems run a candidate in 2020 who is neither grey and uninspiring nor far out of the American mainstream, they have every chance of winning.

6) There is Finally a Check on Trump

The most important piece of good news coming out of the midterms is also the most obvious one: Democrats now have a way of checking (some of) Donald Trump's power.

The danger Trump poses to Democratic institutions is by no means banished. The Republican Party will stay loyal to him. He can make the judiciary even more partisan. Mueller’s job is now in acute danger. And the politicization of the F. B. I. will continue apace.

But Democrats now have the power to block legislation which would enable Trump. They can use their subpoena power to hold him to account. And the House Intelligence Committee can finally investigate his misdeeds with seriousness and urgency.

→ All in all, the midterms are excellent news.

So let’s take a day to celebrate this great success—and then get back to the hard work of defending our ideals and our institutions against the dangerous populist who will remain in the White House for at least another two years.

For a more detailed version of my optimistic argument--and an extra reason to be upbeat--please read my latest column for @slate!

<The End>
slate.com/news-and-polit…