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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The chances of a soft Brexit just went up, compared to the chances of no-deal. But the chances of the PM's deal, more or less, getting through, are probably unchanged. As if no other model, or another vote, passes, it will have to be the PM's deal.
But still too many unknowns. Do ERG finally get 48 for leadership vote as the administration looking to be on its last legs? Does PM resign if huge defeat? Does PM pull vote as clearly no majority and do what?
I bumped into the legendary @ChrisMasonBBC earlier, whose first sentence on what might happen contained three ifs. Who's be a forecaster?
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Am bored of reading the conventional wisdom that the EU could not renegotiate Brexit, and to make this case will borrow the wisdom of one of our most experienced MEPs @RCorbettMEP - this is how it COULD happen (and why it probably won't)
There is no more important Brexit job for MPs in the coming two months than to build consensus - something those more astute than the PM realised some time ago. Future relationship talks with a split Parliament could not succeed.
(The @RCorbettMEP article extracted earlier - labourlist.org/2019/01/richar…)
Read 3 tweets
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The Government may have informally asked the EU about an Article 50 Extension - we presume not for any serious reason (no-deal prep, election, referendum) but in the vague hope this somehow helps the PM's deal pass Parliament
Under three months from leaving the EU by law and we have a Government without a plan.
It is not clear that the UK Government has learned anything about negotiating with the EU over the past two and a half years
Read 4 tweets
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A modest step forward by those MPs supporting a 'Norway' Brexit - they have a better name than Norway+, we now have Common Market 2.0, also breaking the unwritten Brexit rule that all proposals must be +++ d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/stephenkinnock…
There's not much new here, but mention of our freedom to set agriculture rules doesn't sit well with commitments on the Irish border unless assuming Northern Ireland does not in fact have that freedom, and Irish Sea checks
Biggest problem for EEA supporters remains the opposition of both the Labour leadership and the referendum campaigners. Although a majority of MPs could probably live with an EEA solution it is hard to see us getting there
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Thread:
Lately I have become a bit obsessed with Britain’s trade deficit and Balance of Payments with the Rest of The World(ROW). Let me explain why, and what’s it got to do with #Brexit.
For me as a UK-expat in Euroland I have seen the value of my pension drop by 20% since the dreaded referendum.
Let’s home in on what happened around the time of the referendum. Although part of a longer term decline, the sharp drop did not go unnoticed by the commentariat. Sharp drop in Sterling rate highlighted June July 2016Cartoon of pound falling off cliff
Read 22 tweets
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In his blog, Mr Cummings says AIQ "once built some software" for Cambridge Analytica's parent company SCL, in 2014, but suggestions the company shared data with Cambridge Analytica were "ludicrous". bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Leave . EU's co-founder Arron Banks said: "Leave . EU did not receive any data or work from Cambridge Analytica. "UKIP did give Cambridge Analytica some of its data and Cambridge Analytica did some analysis of this.
"But it was not used in the Brexit campaign. Cambridge Analytica tried to make me pay for that work but I refused. It had nothing to do with us."
Read 57 tweets
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1) EU watching to see if their #Brexit deal negotiated with the PM is defeated in parliament tomorrow and if so, by how much
2) EU leaders will invite Theresa May to tell them what’s going on in the U.K, what her next steps will be and what she hopes for from them at their scheduled EU summit on Weds and Thursday this week #Brexit
3) EU v much wants to avoid a no-deal scenario but EU leaders unlikely to provide even written clarifications on controversial #Brexit issues like the backstop to help the PM unless they get a pretty cast iron guarantee that will get the deal through Parliament in a second vote
Read 5 tweets
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I am sick of hearing warnings about how if #Brexit is cancelled it will result in violence and therefore we should go ahead with brexit through fear of racists
A lot of this comes from the right who know their project #Brexit is falling apart but whoever now expects anything better or indeed anything good at all from them. It's when you hear it from left wingers it really angers me
People who are receptive to the idea that immigrants have taken the jobs or depressed wages or pushed up housing costs or stretched public services often have genuine grievances in employment housing or access to health and education which are ignored
Read 23 tweets
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1) EU leaders sticking to their sombre tone at #Brexit summit. Not happy UK leaving
2) At same time they’re trying to help the PM sell her deal back home. EU chief negotiator Barnier called it an unprecedented, ambitious partnership. Dutch PM Rutte said the PM ‘fought hard’ in negotiations and that it’s a ‘good deal’
3) Of course EU realises the deal may not pass through U.K. parliament but EU leaders today underlined, whatever happened, they would not fundamentally change the deal on offer. EU Commission President Juncker spelled this out particularly clearly
Read 5 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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#StopBrexit #NHS #Brexit #Catalonia #PeoplesVote #ttip #brexitopportunity #Unroll #Brexits #Brextremists #Galileo #GE2017 #brexit #WTO #AggregateIQ #DExEU #immigrants #EURATOM #Neocon #Fbpe #brexitinquiry #BBCqt #Trade #EU #A50

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