1) After inheriting a strong economy from Obama, Trump is in now way prepared for a recession, and the steps he has already taken will make it almost impossible to respond.
2) Because of his tax bill, which amounted to a huge give away to corporations and the wealthy, there are already run-away deficits and there is almost no capacity for more stimulus from Congress.
3) Interest rates, while rising, remain low which limit the Fed's capacity to do much through rate cuts.
4) Trump's own trade war with China, which he seems to have little idea how to end, is increasing the pressure on the global economy, roiling markets, risking inflation, and adding new uncertainties
5) His attacks on the Fed suggest his strategy will be to blame others for any economic downturn, starting with the Fed
6) He will also try to blame Democrats in Congress, even though his own totally partisan and counter-productive tax bill will be the reason that Congress will have limited capacity to do anything substantial.
7) The dysfunctional White House - often treated as a source of amusement - would be a further obstacle to rational decision-making.
8) Remember that unlike Obama - who inherited the Great Recession and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - Trump was handed years of GDP and job growth, and far fewer troops in harm's way. He is in no way prepared to govern in a crisis, foreign or domestic.
9) Thus far the crises of the Trump years have been largely of his own making. Over the next two years, reality could intrude, whether it's in the form of an economic downturn at home or a crisis abroad, likely brought about in part from the decisions he has already made.
