Thread by @aaronjmate

1/ Re: Buzzfeed story: I wrote in 2017 that Trump Tower Moscow was a conflict for Trump, who praised Putin on campaign trail as he pursued it. I've always wondered if that motivated his call for better Russia ties. So I think story is plausible. But, a few reasons to be cautious:

2/ If true, it means Trump committed a felony in telling Cohen to lie. Huge deal. Possibly impeachable. But first, they'll need to prove it beyond Cohen's word -- if it's even true that's this word. Also, don’t expect that to lead us to a conspiracy w/ Russian gov’t. Here's why:

3/ To date, all we know is that Trump Moscow had no financing (from anyone) & no Kremlin help — except for a Kremlin assistant who called Cohen & told him that the Kremlin can’t help. Deal never got beyond a letter of intent (LOI) w/ what Cohen dubbed a "third-tier bank."

4/ Perhaps that's why story’s co-reporter, @a_cormier_ tells CNN: "They’re [Buzzfeed's sources] not saying these [Trump campaign] individuals had any contacts with Russia. They are not alleging that this had anything to do with collusion."
mediaite.com/tv/buzzfeednew…

5/ Buzzfeed article paints Moscow Project as more advanced than it was. Trump allegedly told Cohen to falsely claim "negotiations ended months earlier than they actually did" — but what negotiations? There was only effort led by Cohen & Sater trying to get project beyond a LOI.

6/ Also, source is "two federal law enforcement officials involved in an investigation of the matter" — what investigation, the Mueller one? If so, it’s strange that the Mueller team now leaks after being so tight-lipped for 2 years. If not the Mueller team, then who else?

7/ Claim that Ivanka-Don Jr got "detailed updates" conflicts w/ Don Jr.’s testimony to Congress. So we’ll see if he gets indicted. Trump has also submitted his answers to Mueller re: Trump Moscow. So easy test of this story’s claim will be if perjury indictments result from it.

8/ Mueller "learned about Trump’s directive for Cohen to lie to Congress through interviews w/ multiple witnesses from the Trump Org & internal company emails, text messages, & a cache of other documents." Really? Evidence of this major/impeachable felony is documented like that?

9/ All of which underscores the need to see the actual evidence, before we either accept the story’s central claim or dismiss it. In the meantime, I think I've laid out a few of the reasons to be cautious about it. Might add more later.

10/ In short: if Cohen actually alleges Trump told him to lie - Cohen hasn't confirmed it yet - he'll need proof. I predict that ⬇️ claim about corroboration does not bear out. And regardless, given deal went nowhere, I also predict it won't lead us to a Trump-Russia conspiracy.

11/ also: if Mueller knows that Trump lied, as Buzzfeed claims, why in the heck would he let Cohen get sentenced? (& be agnostic on SDNY sentence) Wouldn’t he need Cohen to testify about this lie — & wouldn’t he charge Cohen for the lie that Buzzfeed says Trump told him to make?

12 So this is huge: the Special Counsel's office, which never comments on these stories (except once that I can recall, on the Cohen-Prague story - but even then, nowhere near as strongly as here) is disputing Buzzfeed's reporting. This has been added to their story:

13 as I laid out in prior tweets, there were so many reasons to doubt this story, among them motive: why would Trump feel compelled to pressure Cohen to lie about a real estate project that never had Kremlin approval/financing and never got beyond a letter of intent?