Thread by @swardley

X : Why is there so much press about no deal in the UK? Will it happen?
Me : The reason for the noise is that one particularly vocal group knows that a referendum of remain vs May's deal would go to remain but a referendum of remain vs no deal runs a significant risk of no deal.

Always try to think about the purpose behind a narrative i.e. Gov is using no deal to blackmail Parliament is an association argument i.e. no deal is like blackmail and blackmail is bad therefore no deal is bad - you wouldn't like blackmail, therefore you wouldn't like no deal.

There are also reinforcement arguments being used to create availability cascades i.e. a belief that if repeated enough then others believe it is true simply by virtue of its repetition i.e. leavers are racist or remainers are metropolitan elites that don't care about the poor.

So try to think critically of these statements being made in public, try and understand the purpose behind them and don't just believe them but question them.

X : Can you give an example?
Me : Certainly. My first statement "The reason for the noise is that one particularly vocal group knows that a referendum of remain vs May's deal would go to remain but a referendum of remain vs no deal runs a significant risk of no deal."

... you should question the purpose behind the statement, what groups exists, what evidence is there that the referendums will go one way or another.
X : And?
Me : And nothing. I just made it up to prove a point.

X : What point?
Me : Your willingness to believe or to recoil in horror from the statement may well be a consequence of some availability cascade that you have been exposed to. You always need to think carefully about your own biases and how they might have been influenced.