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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The Good Friday Agreement means that the only way of separating Britain from Europe is by leaving Northern Ireland behind.

And as long as the Tories depend on the DUP that's not going to happen.
Therefore we can't separate ourselves from the European Union, and so we're not going to be able to.
The last three years have been all about Brexiteers being confronted with reality.
There is no way of leaving the European Union that's going to be acceptable to everybody.

And for three fucking years the chimpanzees in parliament have been staring at this problem and getting nowhere with it.
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More from @Staedtler see all

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
I got the timing of Theresa May's resignation wrong - obviously - but the fact of it and the reason for it, that she would never get a withdrawal agreement, I've been right all along
Two questions and one conclusion.

1. Is there any withdrawal agreement that will meet the approval of all necessary parties in Ireland, Northern Ireland, Europe and Parliament?

No.

2. Will Theresa May be forced to resign in the absence of a withdrawal agreement?

Yes
Conclusion: The Tories will abandon Brexit

And I'm not shifting that prediction one inch.
Read 3 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
It can all get so very confusing. Where do we stand?
Last week parliament adopted an amendment telling the government to go and find alternative arrangements to the Irish border.

What arrangements? Nobody knows. Theresa May is going to Northern Ireland, and then a meeting with Juncker on Thursday.
The likely result is that Theresa May reaches a dead end.
Europe and Ireland won't let go the backstop, and parliament won't accept it.
If she's got nothing new, and she's failed the mandate she instructed parliament to give her, she will have to resign.
Read 5 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Anyway, there are two things we need to know, and I'm going to tell you them both.

Oh no. Not a thread. Not like the time you had to take the bus to Shelbyville.
The first thing to know is that the withdrawal agreement will never get through parliament, and you can already see the Tories building themselves up again to vote against it. And she won't get enough Labour votes to make up a fraction of those she loses.
And the second thing you want to know is what will happen when Theresa May's withdrawal agreement is voted down again, and the whole Theresa May Plan lies in ruins along with the whole Theresa May government in the ruins of Theresa May's Brexit.
She's going to resign.
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
Britain is responsible for centuries of bloodshed on the Irish island, which was only ended by the Good Friday Agreement creating a delicate balance between Northern Ireland's attachment to the UK & Ireland.

Both Brexit options skew that balance. A GOOD Britain wouldn't do that.
So... when I point out that in light of our colonial treatment of our Irish neighbours since the 1500's, I'd like for the country I love to avoid tarnishing its moral reputation further by not trashing the very thing put in place to make amends, I get this
And who doesn't love a classic
Read 6 tweets
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A Gay In A Manger💙🎄
@Donnan_S
Okay here we go. Would massively appreciate some RTs on this thread about the #DUP and their stance on people like my fiancé and the love of my life and why they seem to hate us #DUP18
1977 – MP Rev Ian Paisley launches the ‘Save Ulster from Sodomy’ campaign in an effort to retain the ban on homosexuality in Northern Ireland. #DUP18
1982 – #DUP submits a response to the NI Office in respect of the proposed decriminalisation of homosexuality, claiming that The effect of the law as a restraint on bestiality, incest and rape will be further reduced.” #DUP18
Read 37 tweets
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James Barisic 🇪🇺 #FBPE
@jamesmb
Right. I'm ready to call it! The UK government is aiming for the #Brexit negotiations to lead to:

- A Norway deal
- A 'Norway' v '#Remain' referendum.

I'll show my working below!

#stopbrexit #peoplesvote
Why Norway?

Well, the answer to that lies on the island of #Ireland. Due to the GFA, there are not many ways of squaring the circle of having the hard border that is required by the WTO, Northern Ireland remaining in the UK and the UK being outside the customs union.
So the options faced by HMG are:

1 - call a border poll and let Northern Ireland and the Republic reunite as a single entity. While the Conservatives are nominally the Conservative & Unionist Party, there are many who would not share a tear at the loss of NI....
Read 12 tweets
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Hilary Churchill #FBPE
@atatimelikethis
Northern Ireland is a tipping point for Brexit. Even my more Brextremist family members have started to say "Whoa. Hold on there old chap. We liked this idea but not enough to screw that whole Ireland thing up again".

And that from the least pragmatic Brexiters I know.
Over the last month its become a palpable problem. First the weird technology that the more buffon supporters jumped on, but the older family members frowned at. Then the hoey intervention that the GFA wasnt sustainable and now Boris Borders.

The whole thing scares the horses
Northern Ireland is forcing critical evaluation for the first time by Brexiters with strong opinions.

Europe. Far away, full of bureaucrats. Economy, £ fall too disconnected.

But NI? Anyone willing to piss that away without thinking has lost credibility and become a cultist.
Read 10 tweets
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Peter Geoghegan
@PeterKGeoghegan
"IRELAND has always been John Bull's vulnerable flank." 1st line of a 2000 Michael Gove Speccie piece. Wonder if he'll say that in Dublin tomorrow?
Gove wrote a pamphlet in 2000 called Northern Ireland: the Price of Peace in which he compared the agreement to the appeasement of the Nazis in the 1930s and the condoning of the desires of paedophiles. irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/…
In 2000 in Times, Gove wrote against GFA that "The real cause of conflict in Northern Ireland has not been the British presence, but British policy to dilute that presence."
Read 10 tweets

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