,
8 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
There is a real danger of the UK misreading the EU's incentives for a final hour concession. At the macro level, noone wants no deal and it would be illogical for it to happen. But at the individual incentives it becomes more complicated. The EU elections are coming up... 1/
For those that see themselves as a bulwark against the rising tide of anti-EU sentiment from within, caving to Eurosceptic demands is anathema. To them it may undermine the EU project more than no deal. The EU project is the operative incentive 2/
Then you have the problem that they don't know what to cave to. A time limit doesn't look like it'll get support but would come at a cost to the EU..Removing an insurance policy for a speculative alternative that at best *might* work requires the EU to cut Ireland loose... 3/
Again that could have more costs to EU unity than no deal. The bar is very high for a last minute EU concession both because of high cost of appearing to concede and because the UK has no alternative that various EU actors regards as reasonable enough to put it under pressure 4/
So what about the UK? It has made clear there is a majority against no deal. But it needs a coalition to actively do something to stop it. The Labour option is likely to work since it entails no cost to EU unity. But If May can't bear to split her party its not happening 5/
May has to decide on something achievable and specific that costs the EU but is not a deal breaker. Then she'll have to try and convince the EU knowing she can't offer a majority. She can only hope that enough of her MPs and maybe some tacit approval from labour get it through 6/
If it's something on procedure for the future relationship in trying to make max fac work, or possibly a token time-limit (still hard) that might be worth not risking no deal. But if the EU refuse or May can't decide we'll just rerun the vote on May's deal vs no deal 7/
I would guess May's deal would probably still win if that happened but it would need to be last minute all/or nothing. But it is still a pretty big risk and in all that time there are costs to the UK in going right to wire that can't be reversed ends/
