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Listening to another Commons Brexit debate just after spending two days in Brussels I am struck yet again by how little Tory Brexiteers (even ministers) understand the EU or how it works (thread)
They do not grasp how little trust there is in Theresa May’s government, after it whipped for the Brady amendment to vote against the deal she negotiated and said was the only one available
They cannot see that this makes the EU (and Dublin) even more determined to preserve backstop with no time limit or unilateral exit right, though ready to make promises on temporary nature
They fail to detect impatience in Brussels with vague demands from May to “fix” the backstop to help her get the deal over the line, when what is needed is a concrete, specific suggestion
They do not realise that Whitehall, never mind Brussels, cannot take the Malthouse/Madhouse compromise seriously as a policy as it drives a coach and horses through the WA
They still think no deal is a threat that will bring the EU to heel over the backstop, rather like Thatcher threat to withhold budget payments, when it is actually an offer to commit suicide
They fail completely to understand that integrity of the single market matters far more to the EU, both politically and economically, than any potential disruption of access to the UK market
They believe that no deal can be “managed” to eliminate painful disruption and that invoking AXXIV of WTO can then lead seamlessly to the nirvana of a Canadian-style trade deal
They do not see that in fact it would lead to acrimony, money rows, lawsuits and, in effect, a trade war that it would be extremely hard to climb back away from
That is not least because A50 would lapse, so any new negotiation would have to be A218 meaning unanimity and full ratification by national and regional parliaments – which could take years
Finally, they delude themselves that, if no deal happened, it could somehow be blamed on the EU, something no disinterested observer (or voter) could possibly believe
And we might be only 42 days away from this (even A50 extension by a few months won’t stop it happening again in July). Depressing; also, as ever, worryingly ill-informed
