,
4 tweets,
1 min read
Read on Twitter
Every time the Assad family has used various PKK variants to pressure the Turkish state it has backfired badly and only drawn Turkey deeper into Syria.
That's why Idlib's future is still open. If Russia and Turkey can agree a deal then a joint offensive against HTS is plausible. But that requires the regime to ditch the PYD and has to allow Turkey to keep enough turf in Syria in which to settle those unwilling to submit to Assad
Heavy shelling of towns in Idlib might presage a regime offensive.
But just as possible is that these are regular acts of frustration by the regime because it cannot at the moment do anything to seize back the region.
But just as possible is that these are regular acts of frustration by the regime because it cannot at the moment do anything to seize back the region.
Regime frustration over Idlib may well be compounded by the fact that HTS could be profiting considerably from the smuggling of Turkish goods to regime held territory.
This could all end next month or continue for a decade. Permanent instability
This could all end next month or continue for a decade. Permanent instability
