Thread by @sturdyAlex

“You have to leave no-deal on the table. It’s only the threat of no-deal that will bring the EU back to the negotiations”, says David Davis. Here’s a thread explaining why this is utter bunkum and why, in fact, keeping no-deal on the table is hugely counterproductive. 1/9

For no-deal to be an effective threat, one central condition must be met: it must be a CREDIBLE threat. And no-deal simply is not. UK preparations are just not advanced enough. Hell, preparations are not even advanced enough to leave WITH a deal, let alone without. 2/9

The PM knows this, that’s why she’s dropped her “no deal is better than a bad deal” nonsense. MPs know this, that’s why they’ve ruled it out. The Chancellor of the Exchequer knows it, that’s why he wink-wink-nudge-nudges “it’ll never happen” to business. 3/9

Crucially, THE EU ALSO KNOW THIS. *whispers* Unless, in a secret bunker somewhere we’ve got an internationally accredited aviation safety authority and competent medicines agency and signed treaty on radioactive isotopes and A LOT of extra food and insulin and, and, and. 4/9

But we don’t. Because if we HAD those things, they wouldn’t be secret. Everyone would know about them. First, because they’d be in the budget and second, because we would be TELLING EVERYONE. Why? Because, they would make the threat of no-deal (say it with me) CRE-DI-BLE. 5/9

So, everyone knows we can’t credibly exit in three weeks with no deal. Except, it seems, David Davis and every market stall holder called Barry interviewed by BBC News. “Let’s just leave. We survived the war, we’ll survive this.” Yes, alright, Barry. Let’s call that “Plan B”. 6/9

Persisting with threatening something that simply isn’t credible, runs down the clock, putting the UK in a progressively WORSE, rather than better negotiating position. Every day it goes on, Dublin, Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt gain a few more HQs that used to be in London. 7/9

It also just makes us look - how do I put this delicately? - like fucking idiots. To markets. To business. To the EU. To the world. And, let me tell you, opinion of the UK right now is not
high. “What the fuck is Britain doing?” is the question I’m asked most when abroad. 8/9

In short. No deal: We ain’t got it. Pretending we got it makes us look like someone trying to rob a bank with a bright pink water pistol. It’s ineffective and we still might end up getting shot. THE END 9/9