Thread by @emilygrubert

New paper! Methane leakage from natural gas matters way beyond the energy industry. We also still need to get GWP right. Best available science suggests impact is ~2.5x the official estimate. Free to read here: authors.elsevier.com/a/1YkWl3QCo9Uq…; news article here: ce.gatech.edu/news/your-carb…

Natural gas is a feedstock for things like plastics and fertilizer, and we use energy for lots of things, so getting the leakage numbers right matters for life cycle assessment and carbon footprinting. Here's the impact on 6 major industrial materials as % of US carbon footprint:

Our "three considerations" are 1) the LCA databases don't reflect leakage research, which right now means a structural underestimate; 2) not all systems that use natural gas use the same life cycle boundaries (e.g., power plants don't use distribution), 3) GWP is not stable yet

Overall the main points are: we're underestimating how much methane leakage matters, there are meaningful impacts beyond just energy, and at least for LCA, we only need to update a few numbers to get much closer.

Thanks to my coauthor Adam Brandt @StanfordEarth. Permanent archived author copy (no paywall) here, including supplemental text and calculations: hdl.handle.net/1853/60937
Or just email me at [e-mail]. Original link should be free until 6 May.