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6 tweets,
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Some people are tweeting a lot of tripe about Netanyahu wanting to fight an "election war" in Gaza. It's the furthest thing from what he wants. 1. Bibi is totally aware once he cries havoc in Gaza the dogs can't be leashed easily again. War on April 9 won't bring him voters. >>
2. Netanyahu doesn't trust the IDF, certainly not its ground forces, to deliver the result he needs - a fast operation with minimal Israeli casualties. He only used large-scale ground forces once in 10 years, in 2014, and that was after being dragged in despite his wishes. >>
3. The "reinforcements" being sent to Gaza's borders now are 2 brigades which were anyway about to replace forces routinely stationed there. The IDF is going through the motions of a build-up but this is still far from an actual preparation for a major ground offensive. >>
4. Netanyahu's biggest asset in this election is having kept the calm for a decade without giving the Palestinians concessions. Soldiers coming back in coffins will lose that asset. He's in a lose-lose situation now after being shown up so many times recently by Hamas rockets. >>
5. Netanyahu's predicament now is compounded by being caught in the US, where he can't make a big show of conferring with security chiefs. Plus he's also defense minister now with a new IDF CoS. The pressure to act, with his rivals on the right also criticizing him, is intense.
6. Netanyahu will be back in Israel tomorrow morning, there'll almost certainly be airstrikes (of empty Hamas targets) and a lot of showy movement of forces but a ground incursion of Gaza, which no one can predict when it will end, 14 days before the election, is highly unlikely.
