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Sources in EU institutions v clear tonight that Brexit extension to May 22 (which was first offered at the last EU summit & is back in play if TM can convince EU that her new plan can deliver the deal) is ONLY an option if the UK commits to European Elections. /1
The reason for this is simple.
If her plan doesn’t work & deal not done by 22/5 then there is a legally unavoidable cliff-edge ‘no deal’ at midnight on 22nd.
Why? Because the UK can’t remain a member if it hasn’t taken part in European Parliament elections. /2
If her plan doesn’t work & deal not done by 22/5 then there is a legally unavoidable cliff-edge ‘no deal’ at midnight on 22nd.
Why? Because the UK can’t remain a member if it hasn’t taken part in European Parliament elections. /2
Deadline (domestically) to commit to EP elex is 12/4 hence the emergence of that date as current deadline
So I imagine if the cross-party deal hasn’t been done by Mon/Tue she’ll need to commit, protectively, to EP elex & pass legislation for it. /3
So I imagine if the cross-party deal hasn’t been done by Mon/Tue she’ll need to commit, protectively, to EP elex & pass legislation for it. /3
EU may insist she commits anyway just in case the deal hits the buffers in domestic ratification.
Then if there’s a miracle and the deal passes the commons and ratification by 22/5, the election commitment can fall away. /4
Then if there’s a miracle and the deal passes the commons and ratification by 22/5, the election commitment can fall away. /4
The vibe from conversations tonight is that the EU has lost any faith in the UK government or parliament to deliver on anything.
There’s huge scepticism that 22/5 is enough time to achieve a deliverable cross-party compromise. “I don’t believe in miracles” said one source. /5
There’s huge scepticism that 22/5 is enough time to achieve a deliverable cross-party compromise. “I don’t believe in miracles” said one source. /5
EU diplomats, highly knowledgable of Westmister politics after all this time, also wonder how the Tory party will survive this new plan and question why Corbyn/Labour would save her now? What is in it for them? /6
But still - against that, & despite real impatience / worry, there is still a desire by pretty much all EU leaders to avoid no deal at *almost* all costs
“EU prepared to go v v far to... find a solution but not so far as it infects our own institutions...” said one EU official /7
“EU prepared to go v v far to... find a solution but not so far as it infects our own institutions...” said one EU official /7
As always though, @eucopresident Donald Tusk is the patient optimist tonight:
