Thread by @bopinion

Libya's long simmering civil war is coming to a head in Tripoli, where a warlord tied to Russia is attempting to win control of the capital.

[THREAD] 🇱🇾⬇️ bloom.bg/2UlkYyt

Libya intends to export more oil in April than it has done in almost any month since 2011.

Those plans could fall apart in the face of renewed violence, as the government in Tripoli vows to eradicate General Khalifa Haftar’s self-styled army bloom.bg/2UlkYyt

Haftar commands the strongest military force in Libya and contains most of the country’s oil and gas.

Since 2017, Putin has fostered a relationship with the General bloom.bg/2KjaKtU

Haftar’s army controls the east of Libya and the sparsely populated south. Now he's set his sights on Tripoli.

International appeals for calm and an end to the fighting have fallen on deaf ears bloom.bg/2UlkYyt

If Haftar fails to win control of Tripoli and his hold on much of Libya’s natural wealth weakens, the Kremlin will be actively seeking others to empower so it can get back into the country’s oil and gas sector bloom.bg/2KjaKtU

Any escalation in fighting around Tripoli could impact output and exports by spurring a repeat of what happened earlier this decade.

After Qaddafi fell, clashes between rival militias damaged vital facilities bloom.bg/2UlkYyt

Any loss of Libyan oil supplies will add to the tightness in global supplies resulting from the chaos in Venezuela, U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+ supply restraint bloom.bg/2UlkYyt

What's Putin's end game? Moscow wants to support developing nations like Syria and Venezuela in the face of Western attempts to undermine their legitimate rulers.

But in Libya, where the situation is murky, Putin’s bets are being made in private for now. bloom.bg/2KjaKtU