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Today's 2020 Analysis Thread: Liz Warren proves 2 points for me. 1 when your party nominates a woman for POTUS, you probably shouldn't get too picky about who it is & 2 voters have no idea what they want. They say its all about policy specification, but they're ignoring the
most detailed candidate ever. This is why I am continually mystified as to why Democratic Party strategists put so much stock into public opinion data and especially focus group data. If you want to know what voters do/think/feel, don't ask them directly.
New Hampshire Poll IMP: The overall N is 549 but 1/2 of the respondents are devoted to the Republican primary so the D primary sample is 241. Like the Emerson polls, you should be taking this data with a HUGE grain of salt that the top line MOE is +-6.3% scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_… 
What this means is that Buttigieg might have 15% or 21% or 9%. That said, the race right now is Biden, Sanders, Buttigeg, Harris. Everyone else is a tier down. One thing is already becoming clear to me. Liz Warren can not survive with Sanders in the race unless something emerges
that damages Sanders. Another point: Buttigieg is winning what political scientists call the media primary. The media primary is when the media identifies you as having viability and by their favorable coverage, you start to gain momentum. Usually this means you had something
that led the media to you in the 1st place, so to be clear, I am not saying that Pete Buttigieg is only viable bc the media likes him. Still, once you start to generate favorable media coverage it creates a positive feedback loop that leads to more attention and more support and
better fundraising, and in the case of an insurgent outsider like Buttigieg, these things are crucial. Failure to recognize the importance of media visibility can really doom you, and I think we are seeing that to some extent with the O'Rourke campaign. Their strategy was to
focus on retail politics making stops in places where he could generate good size crowds and I think the thought was that this would generate media attention for the above purposes. But 1 month in its clear its not working well. It will be interesting to see if they adapt their
strategy & start getting him in front of the MSNBC audience. Right now the Buttigieg team is kicking his butt. Harris too. She's pretty much invisible & both the O'Rourke team and the Harris team don't seem to recognize how important the media primary is in the invisible primary.
Biden: The Biden campaign is pulling the plug on their ill-conceived plan to launch his campaign in Charlottesville after people (correctly) pointed out that it made him look like he was trying to capitalize on Heather Hyer's death. He has no ties there. They will now launch in
Pittsburgh which has successfully retooled itself from busted steel town to boom town for millennials, a lot of which ties into initiatives done w the Obama Administration. W the vast majority of Ds calling themselves "Obama Democrats" the best move for Joe is call himself 1 too.
