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ElmerCharts™️ Post Q1 Earnings Chart Extravaganza (420x better than Chartucky Derby), part 1:
Tesla's inventory trends don't look so good... 🤒🤮
(brief thread)
ElmerCharts™️ Post Q1 Earnings Chart Extravaganza (420x better than Chartucky Derby), part 1:
Tesla's inventory trends don't look so good... 🤒🤮
(brief thread)
1st, Tesla's inventory from Q1-16 - Q1-19.
It's going up, but that's ok, it's a growth company, right?
(Note: Tesla only breaks out FG inventory into components at year end. It was 49%, 45%, and 51%, so we're using 50% in each Q for purposes of subsequent Chartz).
$tsla $tslaq
It's going up, but that's ok, it's a growth company, right?
(Note: Tesla only breaks out FG inventory into components at year end. It was 49%, 45%, and 51%, so we're using 50% in each Q for purposes of subsequent Chartz).
$tsla $tslaq
Next, a chart of inventory days on hand.
Through Q3-18, Tesla's trend was improving, as operations and WC management were getting better. Good Job Elon!!
But now, at a time when cash is king, Tesla's DOH has nearly doubled from ~50 to ~90.
$tsla $tslaq
2/
Through Q3-18, Tesla's trend was improving, as operations and WC management were getting better. Good Job Elon!!
But now, at a time when cash is king, Tesla's DOH has nearly doubled from ~50 to ~90.
$tsla $tslaq
2/
And for my final chart, this one involves a bit of ElmerMath™️ beyond just pulling numbers from financials.
I calculated an average COGS per new car (auto cogs (ex. serv)/total units sold) to ballpark an estimate of the value of an unsold car in finished goods inventory.
I calculated an average COGS per new car (auto cogs (ex. serv)/total units sold) to ballpark an estimate of the value of an unsold car in finished goods inventory.
It also pulls in one additional numbers that Elon does kindly provide us with: units in transit at the end of each quarter.
So, without further ado:
So, without further ado:
🚨🚨
There appears to be a massive black hole of unsold cars in finished goods inventory, which exploded in the back half of 2018 and further in Q1-19.
Tesla now appears to be sitting on ~30,000 inventory, but not-in-transit cars.
$tsla $tslaq
There appears to be a massive black hole of unsold cars in finished goods inventory, which exploded in the back half of 2018 and further in Q1-19.
Tesla now appears to be sitting on ~30,000 inventory, but not-in-transit cars.
$tsla $tslaq
Are these lease returns/used cars, taken back in by Tesla in Q3-Q1 to drive new sales? Could be, and timing makes sense.
Are some of these the ghost of lathrop lemons?
Are there just a ton of unwanted S/X hiding that we havent found yet?
I can't answer definitively.
Are some of these the ghost of lathrop lemons?
Are there just a ton of unwanted S/X hiding that we havent found yet?
I can't answer definitively.
Could it also be some level of accounting shenanigans, in which some period costs get capitalized into inventory that never actually gets sold (thus never hitting the P&L)? Perhaps, but i express no opinion on that possibility (though that is how other frauds have fraudded).
But - to the extent this is real inventory - no time seems better than the present for Tesla to start turning it into cash. We ( $tslaq ) has noted that they haven't really sold many used S/X/3 in Q3-Q1 despite taking a ton in (e.g. not cleared at auction due to ridic mins).
dag nabbit. The chart title says DPO. but it is indeed DOH.
