Thread by @lewis_goodall

At the end of a pretty torrid week for ChangeUK, not a bad turnout for their Birmingham “Charter for Remain” rally.

.@heidiallen75 takes to the stage first, starts by saying: “ChangeUK we’re going places.” Alas at 2% in the latest poll, it could be nowhere, fast.

Change UK have simplified their message. That was much needed. Still not as clear as the LibDems’ though.

Stephen Dorrell, former Conservative cabinet minister, says “my own former party cares more for its own future than the country’s. The Brexit backing parties parties are responsible for the greatest national humiliation our country ever seen. They are the chaos alliance.”

Dorrell is actually a good performer. Talking in a populist gutsy way and actually telling a decent story about why Change UK should exist beyond nebulous “new politics” memes. They should use him far more.

The speeches here are very worthy and reasonable. But they’re probably too reasonable. There’s a market out there to speak for very angry remainers, a strident message against pro-Brexit elites. It’d be a reason for CUK to exist. But they’re just too nice for that.

For example, I don’t know why CUK doesn’t forget the PV and campaign for revocation instead. It’d be a simple message and would differentiate them from other remainer parties. It would also probably make PV more likely as it’d make it seem a more reasonable option.

After all, the Brexit Party and others are now campaigning for no deal, an extreme version of Leave. It’s been very politically effective in dragging the political debate that way and making no deal more legitimate and more likely.

If they did it they’d make a clear dent in Lib Dems/Green remainer support base. But no sign from it at this event at any rate.

Event gets to see CUK’s first party political broadcast. It’s not bad, if a little convoluted. Interesting that Farage is repeatedly referenced. Trying to set themselves up as the yin to his yang.

.@Anna_Soubry: “The best deal we have is the current deal. We are fighting for the future of our children and our children’s children.”

Soubry:”I realised the Tory Party left me in 2016. There was no doubt where I wanted to be because I had so much more in common with them. I wanted to be with Chuka, with Chris. I didn’t know I wanted to be with the mighty Mike Gapes, that was a bit of a surprise to me actually”

Given that it’s interesting then that she decided to stand for the Tories in 2017 but there we are.

.@ChukaUmunna: “You can’t just talk about the option of a PV, that’s not good enough. You have to actually have a PV.”

.@sarahwollaston: “Brexit is a tragedy for our health, our social care and research.” Again, if so- why not campaign for revoke? As a political message it would make a far more consistent theme than risking it again on another referendum.

.@ChrisLeslieMP: “The problem with populism is that it promises everything but doesn’t have anything to say in the difficult conversations we need to have. the Farages and Corbyns promise to wave magic wands and it’ll all go away.” This is the problem CUK do need a magic wand.

ChangeUk talks as if they’re about to form an administration, it’s technocratic. They need verve and excitement, radicalism and yes some totally unreasonable demands. They need to learn how to sound like a small insurgent force, which is what they are, not a govt in midterm.

This is hard for them because their raison d’être was supposed to be that they were the reasonable ones, the calm ones, the measured ones, vis-a-vis their own parties. But that just won’t be enough. It isn’t a political party or platform, it’s a state of mind.

Member of the audience asks the killer question: “What exactly distinguishes you from the Liberal Democrats? Because I’m not entirely sure.”

Heidi Allen: “I didn’t come into politics just to deal with Brexit. This party wants to deal with the lot.”

This is the problem. They can’t. They shouldn’t. To succeed it should have only been the stop brexit party. It’s not even that right now.

Hubris will kill them and arguably already has.

Oh dear. Chuka in response to what differentiates them from the Lib Dems: “People want to be able to vote for a Remain party with people who voted against austerity.” He says, stood next to Anna Soubry who was literally a minister in the government imposing it. 🤔

Chuka on firmer ground when he says: “if you vote Change this time they will sit up and listen.” References Labour changing tone more in one week when he and others left than in two years. True enough. But they’ve slipped back now they think Change vote has receded.

On the plus side, it has to be said there were lots of people here tonight who hadn’t been involved in politics before, young people too. There clearly is a yearning for something different and they’re excited about it. That has to be to the good.