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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Theresa May could have approached Brexit so differently...

As soon as she took office, she could have gathered the Tory Party together and said "6 months from today, I will be asking Parliament to give me the power to trigger Article 50. I will also attach an amendment making...
revoking Article 50 the default at the end of the 2-year process, if Brexit negotiations aren't concluded. That means we can either unite behind a Brexit plan now, and present that consensus in 6 months time and use the A50 period to enact it, or...
we can argue about the shape of Brexit during the A50 period. But at the end of the two year A50 period, either Brexit will be done and we're out of the EU, or I will revoke Article 50."

Would have saved £4 billion in no-deal prep, and focused minds admirably.
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
We'll know the results of the European elections by tomorrow afternoon (with much of them coming in overnight) but it's interesting that one trend that would explain the vote being down in Leave areas and up in Remain areas is a drop in Leave turnout & increase in Remain turnout.
All sorts of pairs of figures could give a crude approximation of the early turnout figures we've seen, for example:
Leave turnout -6%, Remain turnout +9%
Or (another example): Leave turnout -8%, Remain turnout +11%
Read 7 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Imagine:
Boris Johnson gets picked as next Tory leader. 3-4 Tory MPs leave the party because they can't stomach the idea. Bang, Tory+DUP majority is ancient history.

Could the Queen invite BJ to the Palace in good conscience, knowing he doesn't command the confidence of the HOC?
Bonus question: if not him, who? Because under that scenario it's clear nobody else does either.

Could the Queen force a GE? And would she risk the backlash that would inevitably follow?
That's the thing. She may be stuck either way. She shouldn't invite BJ constitutionally, because she already knows full well he doesn't have the confidence of the HOC ie he has fallen at the first hurdle to becoming PM. But practically? That's another matter...
Read 7 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
BTW we're looking at European election turnout trends because there's no other data to go on until Sunday night, but things could go well/disastrously even if turnout were subdued (which appears not to be the case) because at the end of the day vote distribution dictates MEPs.
So I am cautiously optimistic on the limited trends we have, but that's optimism based largely on guesswork.
My prediction: total vote share for Tories+Brexit Party+UKIP will end up trailing the nationwide % suggested by recent polls by a couple of % or so. It'll probably land in the 40-43% range rather than 45%+. And that difference may tip an MEP race or two in a different direction.
Read 3 tweets

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Brexit Expires
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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
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#Brexit news for today:

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1/n
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Philip C James
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More Old Bailey Sophistry from Codpiece Cox admitting that in order that today's vote is NOT an attempt to repeat #MV2 (to comply with Speaker Bercow's re-iteration of 1604 convention) it is also NOT a #MV in sense of #EUWA18 Section 13.1.b

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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
So why is @theresa_may so stuck on her lousy deal? Well she has 4 objectives and her deal meets these and nothing else does I believe this explains much about her conduct the objectives are as follows THREAD
1/keeping the tory party together and in power this of course is the top priority. Theresa may is aware that any other options be it dal no deal or some BRINO deal with Corbyn would instantly result in a walk out by one faction and with no majority the gov would fall
2/ May is actually terrified of no deal. All the evidence is that this lwould result in awful consequences for millions of people which would destroy any government that presided over it if she wanted no deal she would not have negotiated a deal 2 start with
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Isolated Brit
@IsolatedBrit
Tory #Brexit dimwit Daniel "Kerchingski" complains to "liberal elites" of #BBCNews about #SkyNews reporter...
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Ragnorakishere
@ragnorakishere
Today I read this article goo.gl/uYwFm8 & wondered what had become of James Bundy. He remains a member of the #Tory party with a interest in National Identity goo.gl/AbwRad We have seen the rise of identity politics in the #USA & #Europe
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Back to the article on Bundy and #Antisemitism I wonder if @TracyAnnO feels that it was appropriate for someone who had made antisemitic comments to be reinstated in the #Tory party? @shaunjlawson @simonmaginn @upsadaizy
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