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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Our thesis = national populists would increase/entrench in Europe

UP
Hungary -1st
Italy -1st
Pol -1st
UK -1st
Germany
Sweden
Dutch FvD
Belgium
Spain
Slovak
Estonia
Bulgaria

STEADY
Finland
Slovakia

DOWN
France -1st
Dutch PVV
Denm
Austria

We were right
amzn.to/2K7sarM
Though if you have read our final chapter you'll note Danish & Austrian cases also consistent. Danish left has veered right on migration, Austrian centre-right co-opted much of FPO. In broad terms, Europe's rightward policy drift on identity issues continues
I am mainly comparing with 2014 here but see my earlier tweets on the need to see these results through a longer term/wider lens, at which point what is happening in the EU today becomes even more striking #ep2019
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Looks like I was spot on ..

Labour 30.9% (-17.2)
Brexit Party 28.9% (+28.9)
Cons 21.4% -25.5%

-Farage's ghost of First Past the Post returns
-Though on these numbers Brexit Party would bring down Tories
-Pressure on Corbyn to drift to Remain cools
#PeterboroughByElection
Two competing interpretations of the result for the Brexit Party. The charitable version is that the party is only 8 weeks old, had no data on voters, which hit its ground game, but still came within 700 votes of Labour & took more than enough to cost Tories next election
To that you might add that Peterborough is about 203rd on the list of "UKIP/Brexit Party" seats so a little further down than Rochester and Strood (which UKIP won) but a long way from most fertile territory
Read 4 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
*After the centre-left in Denmark has endorsed some of the most restrictive immigration and integration policies in Europe.
Notice how these critiques focus only on vote shares and never on policy influence
And here's the broader trend, which is also often conveniently ignored by such critiques that focus only on vote shares
Public policy positions of mainstream parties have moved decidedly rightwards since the 1980s (Wagner & Meyer)
"a clear time trend to the ‘right’ pole of the policy space. Over time, all party types have shifted towards the ‘authoritarian’ end of the policy scale. Moreover, there is little difference in the trends for centre-left and centre-right mainstream parties"
Read 4 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Brexit Party 1st in Westminster poll

Brexit Party: 26% (+2)
Labour: 22% (-7)
Conservatives: 17% (-5)
LibDems: 16% (+5)
Greens: 11% (+8)
SNP: 4% (nc)
Change UK: 1% (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (+1)
UKIP: 1%

Opinium May 28-30
What is also worth noting is the broader collapse of public support for Britain's two main parties. Labour & the Conservatives are on just 39% combined. There is just so much going on that we have never seen before.
Westminster poll II

Labour 26% (-9)
Brexit Party 24% (+18)
Conservative 20% (-12)
Lib Dem 16% (+9)

via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ Mar
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