, 19 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter

Answering a few questions on the timing & possible outcome of impeachment proceedings.

Befuddled, I hope that whatever is in Trump's financial docs is enough to persuade the Senate to remove (and shift public opinion as in the Nixon era). . .
1/ The possible bombshell is that those records contain evidence that Trump has been propped up with Russian money since the 1980s. We have evidence floating around that this is true. See👇

2/ Trump’s ferocious fight to keep people from seeing his financials indicates bombshells. Or it could be because he is neurotic about the public learning anything that doesn’t fit his “brand.”

Remember all those NDA’s?
3/ There was an interesting comment in Pelosi’s press statement: She said Mueller was not allowed to investigate Trump’s financials.
The Speaker has access to info that we don't have.

There was nothing in Mueller’s mandate to prevent him from . . .
4/ . . . following Trump’s financials, particularly because, if the Trumps are propped up by Russian money, this would go directly to a Trump-Russia conspiracy.

Pelosi is saying Mueller was not allowed so the House needs to do the investigation.
5/ “Propped up by Russian money” is not only a national security nightmare, it also undermines the entire Trump image (which people do still believe).

Remember that Politico article about how Trump lost support when people learned he wasn’t self-made?
6/ What tempers my hope is that the Senate and GOP leadership already knows that Trump is lying, cheating, taking Russian money, and obstructing justice—and they continue to shield him.

I’ve talked about why a Nixon outcome is by no means guaranteed.
7/ Nixon didn’t have Fox and right wing media. John Dean said Nixon might have survived if he had Fox. During the Nixon era, much of the white South was still Democratic. The shift in party demographics creating our current level of polarization wasn't complete until Reagan. . .
8/ What do I mean by party shift? See👇

Also Nixon could retire to his estate. Trump’s “estate” is under siege by law enforcement.

Trump thus has a motive to fight that Nixon didn’t have: Remaining in the White House can shield him from prosecution.
9/ As far as pace, given the appeals schedule, looks like the House will have Trump’s financial documents this summer (early fall, latest).

I'm an appellate lawyer and I can tell you that is a breakneck pace.
10/ If you read Nancy Pelosi’s exact words you can see that her position is more nuanced than the headlines would have you believe.

(Screenshot in next tweet)
11/ She said this👇

The transcriber heard “yes?”
In the audio version, I heard “yet.”

Even if she said “yes” instead of “yet,” I hear her saying this: Our goal is the truth and facts. If those facts take us to a place where we have to impeach, despite the divisiveness, we will.
12/ In other words, the Speaker said that the facts "may take us to a place that is unavoidable in terms of impeachment."

Consider how much better this is than for the Speaker to say (or imply) that she is on a quest to impeach.
13/ Tania wants to know what a Senate trial would look like.

Even with the chief justice presiding (which helps keep it in the legal instead of political realm) I expect a trial to be political drama with lots of grandstanding and speech making.
14/ Profs. @JoshuaMatz8 and @tribelaw explain that the drafters of the Constitution specifically decided to give the powers of impeachment and removal to Congress and NOT the judicial branch.

This prevents the president from appointing the people who would decide his guilt.
15/ Giving the authority to Congress also transforms a legal process into a political process. Those who acts as judge and jury of the president are elected officials answering to constituents (all Americans).

In other words, a Senate trial won’t be like Perry Mason.

I don't know. Mueller's mandate allowed him to pursue Manafort's financial crimes. Why not Trump's, particularly if his were relevant to the Trump-Russia question.

I got the sense from Pelosi's statement that Trump managed to prevent it.

See next tweet
Here is the Mueller mandate 👇which includes the broadly written "any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation."

I assume that's how he got Manafort (and Cohen!) on unrelated crimes.
What a difference the word "yet" can make.
When I taught in a college, I actually had a student ask me, "Why does it matter which word you use?"
Me (throwing a nutty): Wars are fought over which word was used! History is changed by the slip of a word!
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