Thread by @TheLastRefuge2

1. Eyes Wide Open....

2. As President Trump has begun to sever the strategic influence (at least the open ability to manipulate) held by China over North Korea..... You can easily see why Beijing would start looking for another avenue.

3. Here's where Hong Kong comes into play on the strategic geopolitical, and economic, battle-space...

4. One can easily see how Beijing would replace the strategic value of the DPRK with the strategic value of Hong Kong. Hence, Chairman Xi tells Carrie Lam to prepare the shift.

Yes, a Vice-Premiership is in her future..

5. And yes, Hong Kongers will be getting the “North Korean” treatment once China has control.

6. Hong Kongers are not stupid. The people clearly see what the Han Chinese will do to them. Beijing will use them as a front to avoid the international restructuring, steal technology etc, etc, and like they did with the DPRK, say China is “clean.”

7. Currently Hong Kong is not subject to the same economic consequences within the U.S-China confrontation.

8. As long as Hong Kong is considered ‘autonomous’ they remain detached from U.S. tariffs & other measures targeted to China.

9. However, if China breeches the increasingly unclear (being eroded) barriers, judicial and legal systems intended to provide that autonomy – well, then the situation would change. The U.S. would apply the China measures toward Hong Kong.

10. President Donald Trump is applying massive economic pressure upon China in an effort to force a complete restructuring of trade terms that will have global implications.

11. The recent moves by Trump have significantly weakened the supply chain position of a Chinese nation that is dependent on raw materials, and the import/acquisition of technology systems.

12. Beijing is now threatening any institution that would consider an exit from China, and simultaneously burning massive amounts of cash to subsidize their manufacturing position and offset any tariff impact.

13. As manufacturing investment begins to shift to South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines and alternate ASEAN nations, capital is starting to flow out of Hong Kong into safer financial systems within Tokyo and Singapore.

14. Historically the totalitarian Chinese response has been to drop the panda mask and turn to their Red Dragon authoritarian nature. However, until now they have only faced internal challenges to their systems….

15. President Trump is applying external pressure, external challenges, and Beijing is discovering when they unleash the Dragon approach into an external global market that is adverse to Dragon instability, the economic systems do not acquiesce.

16. Instead, with more antagonism and threats the international "free West" responds by quietly discontinuing the relationship with China.

17. Beijing has no frame-of-reference, culturally, to understand this dynamic. Economic systems, based on this pesky freedom and capitalistic markets, are like free people… neither like to be threatened and controlled by oppressive regimes.

Annoyances for the Dragon mindset.

18. Annoyances need workarounds.... For purposes of import tariffs etc, Hong Kong is treated as an independent country. Beijing sees the opportunity to evade tariffs and other U.S. measures by operating out of Hong Kong.

[w/false country of origin markings and bills of lading.]

19. Hence Beijing calls upon Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam. ie. 'Let's speed up that assimilation program we've been discussing'... The weakening of Hong Kong "autonomy" begins accordingly....

20. /END