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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
, 4 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
2018 was a bonanza year for natural gas, increasing by over 5%, one of the strongest growth rates for over 30 years.

US drove the increase with a huge weather related spike in gas consumption.

1/
#BPstats bp.com/en/global/corp…
Dale Spencer @BP_plc made the point that the US increase was weather related, something the @EIAgov tracks in STEO.

The spike in 2018 was more likely since 2018 was a 'normal' year (for heating), & 2016 & 2017 were 'milder' years. See this thread

2/
The US & China led growth in gas use:

The growth in US was due to power (coal to gas) & heating (power & buildings).

The growth in China was due to coal to gas in industry & buildings, improving environmental outcomes. Very little Chinese growth in gas power generation!

3/
Australia is driving the increase in gas exports. According to the government "the export of Australian gas is helping the world lower its carbon emissions" says @mattjcan theguardian.com/australia-news…

Cooking the planet slowly: 2 steps forward & 1 step back, means emissions up!

4/4
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
The largest update to ocean temperatures since 2011 leads to a 0.1°C upward revision (over oceans), which translates to a ~0.06°C increase of global temperatures.

Does this matter for 1.5°C? Does it effect 'carbon budgets'?

1/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-major…
A change of 0.06°C sounds small, but translates to ~130GtCO₂ (~3 years of emissions). This is significant when 1.5°C is so close.

If we assume 1.5°C is an absolute change from preindustrial, then carbon budgets will now be ~130GtCO₂ smaller.

2/
What about if 1.5°C is a relative change from today? Then a 0.06°C increase is like changing the target to 1.56°C. The change is "just a labelling exercise & doesn’t affect the remaining budget at all".

Which is fine if we accept the relative 0.5°C decreases every year...

3/
Read 9 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
One-sixth of global economy under net zero targets

🤔

Hold your horses 🏇, let's think this through...

Yes, it is great countries are setting net-zero targets. Can we instead have a list "countries that have policies in place to reach net-zero"?

1/
eciu.net/news-and-event…
Presumably Bhutan & Suriname have achieved their target due to forest sinks.

Let's think this one through...

If we emitted no CO₂, the net sink would be zero. The sink arises because we emit CO₂, 40GtCO₂ per year in fact. The sink is mainly due to CO₂ fertilization...

2/
I am all for protecting forests, definitely. But should we give countries credit for a climate change induced natural sink?

If it good enough for Bhutan & Suriname, then it is good enough for Sweden? Sweden would almost be net-zero today if the sink (green) was included...

3/
Read 8 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Norwegian greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow:
* Up 0.4% in 2018
* Up 3.4% since 1990
* Oil & gas activities up 75% since 1990
* Transport up 27% since 1990

But, Norway is a 'climate leader' because it has ambitious targets?

1/3 ssb.no/en/klimagassn
Norwegian GHG emissions are approximately flat since 1990, despite large changes in the different GHGs:
* CO₂ emissions have risen 25% since 1990
* Modest reductions in CH₄ & N₂O (13% & 42%)
* SF₆ & PFCs almost gone
* HFCs growing, from zero in 1990
2/3
And, for good measure, here are the figures of Norwegian GHG emissions without the 2020 and 2030 targets shown.

All data from ssb.no/en/klimagassn

3/3
Read 3 tweets

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@Headsnipe011
Big deal for Energy Trade

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energy.gov/articles/us-de…
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