The downing of the American UAV this morning is an escalation in the Gulf confrontation evolving between the United States and Iran.
This is the first time during the crisis that the Iranians have downed an American aircraft and taken credit for such military action.
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This is the first time during the crisis that the Iranians have downed an American aircraft and taken credit for such military action.
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The downed aircraft was a highly advanced reconnaissance plane: valuable operational technology. This is no mere drone! It was a cutting edge $200 million piece of equipment. 2/6
The important question is: Where was the spy plane flying and where was it shot down?
If it was over Iranian territory, its downing is within the accepted rules of the game: The Iranians might claim legitimacy in shooting down a spy plane over their sovereign territory. 3/6
If it was over Iranian territory, its downing is within the accepted rules of the game: The Iranians might claim legitimacy in shooting down a spy plane over their sovereign territory. 3/6
But if the downing took place over international waters in the Gulf, this marks a significant escalation in the confrontation and will present the Trump administration with a strategic dilemma. 4/6
So far U.S. responses have not been effective in discouraging Iranian aggression: The president brushed off the Iranian attacks as insignificant and the decision to send more forces does not exact a tangible price. 5/6
The American deterrence dilemma: continued forbearance is liable, no less than over-reaction, to bring about escalation, because the Iranians interpret it as a pass for further provocations.
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