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The basic notion that Trump has an Electoral College advantage seems right, he obviously did in 2016, but I'm pretty skeptical that we can say much right now about whether it will be larger, smaller or nonexistent in 2020.
History would say you should have a loose prior toward it being smaller since the Electoral College advantage is historically not very durable, e.g. it benefited Democrats as recently as 2012.
Also you need to look at things probabilistically. If there are several states that look like the potential tipping point state, that's a lot more robust for Democrats than if they have just one path to 270, especially if those states are unique from one another demographically.
