Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ The specter of No-Deal loomed closer today, and businesses aren't ready.

The new Prime Minister didn't so much as hint at any new offer to the EU, only a restatement of the same ultimatum:

Remove the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement, or face a chaotic UK departure.

2/ Moreover, he hardened his position beyond that of the Tory Party even a few months ago.

The problem with the Backstop is no longer that it's potentially inescapable, but that it is inherently "anti-democratic".

A time limit or unilateral exit mechanism won't do.

3/ There is only one scenario under which a deal emerges under Mr Johnson's stated conditions:

The EU was bluffing the entire time. It, collectively, lacks the stomach for No-Deal and the past two years have been a long-con to avoid it without visibly sacrificing the GFA.

4/ This is impossible to rule out. None of us are privy to the private conversations of Tusk, Barnier and the EU 27 leaders.

However.

If this was a bluff, it was one with the very credibility of the EU both internally and as a negotiating partner as the wager.

5/ Much of the "art" of international negotiations lies in determining which of the other parties red-lines are illusory.

The EU has drawn its Backstop red-line in blood. Every major figure, from @MichelBarnier and @WeyandSabine to Macron, Merkel and Tusk, have stated it plain.

6/ An about-face now, especially one for which Mr Johnson's position and rhetoric leaves so little political cover, would be signal no EU red-line is truly firm, regardless of whom it is voiced by or how firmly it is stated.

At a time of global upheaval, that's a high price.

7/ It is also a scenario which projects onto the EU collectively a vastly lower pain threshold than that of the UK.

For all the talk of the EU's goods surplus, no individual EU State is as dependent on exporting to the UK as the UK is to the EU collectively.

Not even Ireland.

8/ Looked at politically, the odds grow even longer. The UK's hyper-scrutiny on all Brexit issues, and its divisiveness around them are simply not matched outside Britain.

The Irish seem behind the Taoiseach and Brexit barely makes the news in Germany or France.

9/ The fabled German car manufacturers, destined to ride their BMW Steeds to Castle Westminster in the UK's hour of need like very well engineered knights of Arthurian legend, again this week backed the Withdrawal Agreement and the Single Market.

Gandalf and Rohan aren't coming.

10/ Those wiser than I have suggested that Parliamentary arithmetic and opposition to No-Deal makes it impossible. That any scenario where a No-Deal becomes the only option sees a collapse of government, a general election, or both.

I wouldn't dare guess if this is true.

11/ However, I urge everyone to remember that the invocation of Article 50 created a null-case scenario.

To borrow a phrase from @davidallengreen, the "automatic application of law" now stalks the UK, and but a single stumble will send the country into its jaws.

I am worried.