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1/ Any chance pub bores could stick to bloviating about the "Dunkirk Spirit" and leave the trade book report to those of us who actually read the novel?
*- Ireland 2017 -*
Goods
UK: 12% of Exports
UK: 22% of Imports
Services
UK: 16% of Exports
UK: 9% of Imports
Source: CSO
*- Ireland 2017 -*
Goods
UK: 12% of Exports
UK: 22% of Imports
Services
UK: 16% of Exports
UK: 9% of Imports
Source: CSO
2/ No-Deal Brexit will be disruptive for Ireland and the EU. Some parts more than others.
Yet some Brexit commentators have consistently misquoted, misunderstood, or simply invented trade statistics and rules to fuel a narrative of inevitable EU surrender.
It's dangerous.
Yet some Brexit commentators have consistently misquoted, misunderstood, or simply invented trade statistics and rules to fuel a narrative of inevitable EU surrender.
It's dangerous.
3/ While significant EU compromise remains a possibility, commentators like Lord Digby Jones present it as inevitable, and do so at a time when UK small and medium sized business preparation rates for No-Deal are still horrifyingly short of where they need to be.
4/ No-Deal will hurt EU businesses, but simply looking at exports in dollar terms and assuming that's what's at stake for each party is ludicrously juvenile.
Like 6 year olds deciding who would win a war based on how cool each side's fighter jets look.
Like 6 year olds deciding who would win a war based on how cool each side's fighter jets look.
5/ Precisely which businesses on either side will be impacted, how much, for how long and with what options for mitigation or diversion is a ludicrously complicated question.
I assume BEIS and DExEU are working on it. I wish them the best of luck, as it's a nightmare to model.
I assume BEIS and DExEU are working on it. I wish them the best of luck, as it's a nightmare to model.
6/ What we do know:
- The EU started their preparations earlier;
- The UK is a less significant partner for the EU collectively than the inverse; and
- The UK (currently) plans to unilaterally liberalize in the wake of No-Deal, where as the EU does not.
- The EU started their preparations earlier;
- The UK is a less significant partner for the EU collectively than the inverse; and
- The UK (currently) plans to unilaterally liberalize in the wake of No-Deal, where as the EU does not.
7/ I am always cautious to note no one is privy to EU Leader internal communications and a capitulation may indeed be coming.
However, to present it is as inevitable is dangerous, and the arguments offered for that inevitability fall apart under reality's lightest breeze.
/end
However, to present it is as inevitable is dangerous, and the arguments offered for that inevitability fall apart under reality's lightest breeze.
/end
