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What do yesterday's developments tell us about #Brexit? Latest piece & short thread. As close ally who won promotion to Cabinet in reshuffle describes it, @BorisJohnson will pursue a “twin track strategy” - pursuing a deal & ramp up preparations for no-deal with equal vigour 1/ 
This source said: “He genuinely wants a deal. But he is not going to look needy when he talks to the EU. Both sides have to move; that includes the EU. It’s not either deal or no-deal, it’s both. But both have to be realistic, credible options. That is the order from the top.” 2/
On the deal side: Johnson will actively pursue, through his own contacts with EU leaders, & taking advice from the AG Cox & @DavidGHFrost, who is seen as someone who can build bridges with EU. Cox is convinced a revised deal can be done by making Irish backstop temporary enough..
for him to change his legal advice to @theresa_may that UK could not escape it. Although Johnson ruled out changes to the backstop only last week, allies suggest the Cox option is still in play. We think other options we've previously described - of a long transition - are too 4/
Interestingly, I'm also hearing that the Cabinet will this morning discuss a big bold unilateral offer to EU citizens in the UK—potentially allowing them to stay even in the event of no deal 5/
At same time @michaelgove will be chief progress-chaser, based in Cab Office, incl responsibility for enhancing no-deal planning, including major advertising campaign aimed at small businesses. Big task for Gove will be to ensure Whitehall departments are “match fit” for no-deal
One obvious flaw in this approach is EU is well aware that Commons will try to block no-deal. However, Boris' allies believe EU cannot rely on the rebellion blocking no-deal. His team are quietly sounding out Labour backbenchers representing seats which voted Leave in 2016 7/
in belief they will either back his deal or no-deal. “There is a lot of movement in our direction” says one member of Team Boris. But while BJ can spin both plates for a while, he will have to choose one track - & sooner rather than later
We still think an election is likely - now even more so (45% compared to 40% previously). As I tweeted yesterday, that's now also the working assumption of many senior officials in the EU tasked with managing Brexit. ENDS
