Thread by @pmdfoster

Some facts and figures on this - the value of UK lamb exports to the EU, the value of the 'new opportunities' in Japan, and the gap between the two 1/thread. #Brexit #NoDealBrexit

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1156105837124956160

First UK lamb exports to the EU....and specifically Welsh lamb...this from BBC /2

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…

And this from FarmingUK, which puts UK 2017 exports at £384m and rising consistently...from £302 million in 2015 and £327 million in 2016. /3

The EU tariffs on UK lamb, in a 'no deal' will range, depending on the cut, but the round figure (somewhere between 18% and 50%) used by the BBC is about 40%.

That will render those exports uneconomic, per FarmingUK. /4

So what about the value of the new Japanese opportunities advanced by @AlunCairns to @bbcnickrobinson on @BBCr4today as an offset...mmm...it's not very good I'm afraid.../5

@AlunCairns @bbcnickrobinson @BBCr4today The Institute of Export and internatinal trade says the Japan deal is worth £52m over FIVE YEARS...so £10.4m a year. Against exports of nearly to EU of NEARLY £400m! /5

export.org.uk/news/433868/Ja…

@AlunCairns @bbcnickrobinson @BBCr4today This is always the problem with "global trade" growht narrative....lots more of 'not very much'...is still, er...not very much. Or certainly not enough to merit screwing up your trading relations with the bloc where 43% of your exports go to. /6

@AlunCairns @bbcnickrobinson @BBCr4today The best the Government can come up with is

a) we'll throw some money at your
b) it might never happen.

This from @Jacob_Rees_Mogg to BBC /7

@AlunCairns @bbcnickrobinson @BBCr4today @Jacob_Rees_Mogg I'll leave it to Welsh farmers to decide if that's a satisfactory basis for ongoing trade and planning purposes. All this talk of 'civil unrest' leads to me suspect it might not be. 8/ENDS