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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A couple of trade policy newsflashes with UK relevance. First, the pro-Brexit leader of Canada's Conservative Party has said now is not the time to conclude a UK-Canada trade deal - the rollover of CETA. cbc.ca/news/politics/…
Second, a story on the EU-Mercosur catches the eye for this Wilbur Ross quote - confirmation as I've said before that in some areas trade deals with EU and US are becoming incompatible. reuters.com/article/us-usa… (h/t @emilyrees_eu)
@emilyrees_eu Add these newsflashes to the by now regular story on how the US Irish lobby may block a UK-US trade deal that threatens the Good Friday Agreement, plus the refusal to negotiate with the EU, and we have a Government without a credible trade policy theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I note both on twitter and in real life the remain v no-deal divide is only becoming more entrenched, which we're going to suffer from because if there's one area you really need some cross-party consensus it is international economic policy - otherwise investors won't come... 1/
Current Government policy - deal with US, no deal with EU. So investors who want preferential access to the US market could build here. Except that the opposition policy is deal with EU, no-deal with US. On that basis you're going to wait (see car industry...) 2/
Now if we think 50% of the population are likely to remain supportive of close relations with / membership of the EU, and 50% will not (for argument's sake), those in the first group will inevitably win one day... but this then becomes zero sum politics 3/
Read 9 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Entirely for domestic consumption, to look tough, while ignoring how it looks outside the UK. The EU decided in June 2016 that the remaining 27 would decide their approach, rather than the departing member.
By the way, that magical future FTA which solves the Irish border, preserves all trade advantages of EU membership with no cost, and has no conditions that the ERG will object to, does not and will not ever exist.
More reality denial (although it remains possible that the EU will offer a token concession at some stage which Johnson will claim as backstop abolition)

Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Old observation, but businesses / major investors require broad policy stability which they won't get from a Government afraid to go to Parliament, and a country utterly polarised on the subject of international relations.
To put it another way, why invest seriously in a free port if a future Government will negotiate a deal with the EU in which exports from the free port will not benefit?

Or similarly invest in diversifying markets away from the EU if we'll have a future deal?
Of all the many issues with no-deal, the fact it imposes an economic shock but then in the future we're likely to sign a deal accepting many of the same conditions (assuming other parties maintain their policies) is one of the most significant.
Read 3 tweets

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