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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
EU currently proposing US and EU negotiate a deal covering just industrial goods and not agriculture; US saying no.

Makes me sceptical US would do so for UK.
Although long term followers will know that my pet theory is as follows:

US will agree not to apply Trump trade war tariffs to UK in return for UK backing US on Iran/banning Huawei/scrapping DST/something like that.

This will be packaged for press as a ‘trade deal’.
Well would you look at that.

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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
A good example of a deal that would affect trade but not a free trade agreement that could be packaged as a 'sectoral trade deal'.
I think people are being to literal about all of this. Trump can package nearly anything as a 'deal' if he wants to. While an actual free trade agreement, especially one that excludes agriculture, is very unlikely, there are other things the US and UK might do.
And ultimately, Bolton just wants to use a potential trade deal as a carrot to tempt UK into backing US on Iran, Huawei, China etc.
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
Ummm. This isn’t a new issue. Bizarre.
Look, here I am making a (with hindsight, very weird) joke about it earlier this year.
And here’s the piece you should actually read.

Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
If the UK does indeed prioritise an open border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, then a fully-fledged free trade agreement between the UK and US could only ever apply to Great Britain.

Trade-offs.
It is not as if this issue is unknown. I wrote about it in September 2017, for example.

uktradeforum.net/2017/09/20/wha…
But it does make me wonder if, at some point in the near future, what the UK's response will be if Trump says something along the lines of "There's this problem with Northern Ireland, but we'll do a deal with England for sure."
Read 3 tweets

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