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Robin Wigglesworth
@RobinWigg
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Some interesting charts from the lastest BAML investor survey. First up, global recession fears have spiked and are at an eight-year high.
A record number of investors polled are concerned about corporate leverage.
Positioning is extremely risk-off: Investors are heavily overweight cash, bonds, bond proxies and defensive equities, and massively underweight equities.
Investors HATE value stocks again.
Despite negative-yielding sovereign debt hitting $15tn, fund managers think corporate debt is more bubbly.
Yet investors still reckon that US Treasuries is currently the most-crowded trade.
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Robin Wigglesworth
@RobinWigg
Leveraged loans get all the attention, but it is in the underbelly of American corporate debt where the wild things are. on.ft.com/2HSdnBH
Credit people joke the only thing you need to borrow in the private debt market these days is being able to breathe fog on a mirror. Experienced credit hedge funds are baffled by how crazy things have become.
Even people inside the industry admit things are mental, with some investors now leveraging their investments in private debt funds to counteract falling returns (!) Some people even see similarities with subprime.
Read 3 tweets
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Robin Wigglesworth
@RobinWigg
Almost every major equity market in the world is now in a correction or bear market, Goldman Sachs notes.
There have also been more extreme moves, and especially negative ones.
Notable that almost nothing outperformed has outperformed Treasury bills over the past 12 months. You have to go back to the 1980s to see something similar.
Read 18 tweets
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Robin Wigglesworth
@RobinWigg
Fascinating new report by JPMorgan’s Josh Younger, who argues that bank regulation, not “algos”, is the primary cause of heightened volatility lately, as banks de-risk ahead of the end of the year.
The G-SIB surcharges are the biggest problem in late Dec because they are only based on the year-end balance sheet.
These regulations HAVE made the financial system, but some aspects can have unintended consequence. Fortunately, they can pretty easily be addressed.
Read 5 tweets

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