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Marios Richards
@MariosRichards
, 4 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
@BruceKHayward @CeddChad @sundersays @K_Niemietz @rolandmcs @mjrharris @YouGov I think the notion that the Remain campaign defined - or ever could define - what Leave "meant" is a complete canard. It bugs me whenever it comes up.

No political party ever gets to swap *their own manifesto pledges* with *how the other side repr. the worst case scenario*.

/1
@BruceKHayward @CeddChad @sundersays @K_Niemietz @rolandmcs @mjrharris @YouGov If Remain had won, would Remainers have been able to say that their mandate to act covered anything and everything Nigel Farage asserted that Remainers were about to do?

Political opponents define worst-case scenarios/frame things in the least flattering light possible.

/2
@BruceKHayward @CeddChad @sundersays @K_Niemietz @rolandmcs @mjrharris @YouGov The day people say "you know what, now we've won I'd like to say that our political opponents were actually right" is the moment something very weird has happened.

/3
@BruceKHayward @CeddChad @sundersays @K_Niemietz @rolandmcs @mjrharris @YouGov But re: the way the Vote Leave campaign pivoted to match the Leave dot EU campaign was marked and irreversible. Attempts after the result to try to claim that it had nothing to do with immigration were desperate and doomed to failure.

/4
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Marios Richards
@MariosRichards
@AnthonyBarnett @helenlewis Yes - saw the link to that right *after* I'd finished writing my thread.

Very nice article, nothing to disagree with about the content ...

... however, it's *really hard* to nail down "sovereignty" as a major driver of voting Leave (among the public rather than elites).

/1
@AnthonyBarnett @helenlewis In fact, it's *really hard* to even know what it is that the Leavers who say "sovereignty" rather than "immigration" (as most imp. issue. for their euRef vote) even mean by sovereignty.
/2
@AnthonyBarnett @helenlewis Here's a plot where I used the entirety of the BES dataset to try to split Leavers who said "Sovereignty" and Leavers who said "Immigration" (as their most important issue for the euRef) using an algorithm that creates axis that maximise separation.

/3
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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KidTempo⭐
@KidTempo
Welcome back to the popular series of "Misinterpreting survey results" (though this time I think without an attempt to deceive).

Again, a cautionary tale of how misreading survey results can lead to very misleading conclusions...

Previous thread:
Survation has just published the results of a survey showing preferences of whether people wish to a) Remain in the EU, b) Leave with a Deal, or c) Crash out of the EU with no deal.
In addition to which choice voters would prefer, the survey also asked which would be the second preferred outcome i.e. the second preference - which is a good question to ask BUT its results must be treated with care.
Read 26 tweets
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Fish_fighting_a_coup #COG ⚙️#HaveDemocracy #FBPE🐟
@fish_in_a_hat
*There is no such thing as bad news*

A Thread for beginners on twitter about using twitter to campaign for #remain

so - first point. On twitter there is no such thing as bad news. Every time something makes you react, twitter record that fact - and use it .........

1/30
to make twitter more interesting. That is what twitter cares about.
So when you:
Like ❤️
retweet♻️
Quote Tweet 💬
click to expand a picture or article to read 🖼️
or vote in a poll📊
You are telling twitter that you are interested in THAT tweet - and they will act on it

2/n
Nothing succeeds like success ....

..they will act by sending you - and other people with a similar profile, more of these things that *interest you* for you to look at😣

3/n
Read 31 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
Lets try sth -- using large scale @Survation estimates of support from a comprehensive 20k strong poll across the UK, we can see which constituencies have swung from #Leave in 2016 to #Remain if there was a rerun of the 2016 #EUref ...a map and the 10 biggest swings to Remain
Constituency #Southampton, #Itchen
#Leave in 2016 59.96
Estimated #Leave % in 2018 42.60
Estimated swing to #Remain -17.36
#Westminster Constituency: #Kingston upon Hull North
#Leave in 2016: 59.97
Estimated #Leave % in 2018 45.15
Estimated swing to #Remain -14.82
Read 53 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
New @cage_warwick paper with @EleAla on "Who is NOT voting for Brexit anymore?" Using local area estimates from @chrishanretty based on data from a 20k @Survation poll we study how the level & geography of support for Leave has changed since 2016... goo.gl/CkUkgD 1/
Swing away from #Leave is widespread and happening broadly across the UK, specifically in England, Wales, Cornwall and the North. Overall estimated level of support for Leave is 6 percentage points lower across UK, but masks significant heterogeneity. 2/
We follow similar approach as in earlier work with @essobecker and @DennisNovy to decompose the geographic variation to identify which factors are capturing the variation across the UK in the swing away from #Leave to #Remain.... 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Stuart Coster
@StuartCoster
All the times the govt's own EU referendum pamphlet, delivered to every house, said that voting Leave meant "less access", "losing full access" & "uncertainty and risk" about the Single Market. But a majority voted Leave anyway.
#democracy @LeaveMnsLeave @DeborahMeaden
Here's the Remain campaign's widely distributed 'Europe & You' leaflet, stating that our votes "will decide your family's future" & "at risk" was being "free to trade with all EU countries with no barriers". A majority voted Leave anyway.
#democracy @Change_Britain @DeborahMeaden
Here's Will Straw, director of the Remain campaign, highlighting that Leave campaigners had "conceded" that outside the EU the UK would lose access to the Single Market. "We must be absolutely clear about what this means", he said. A majority voted Leave anyway
#democracy @montie
Read 8 tweets
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Sune Auken, Genre Research, #FBPE #FBR
@GenreResearch
So, while we are resting on the #FBPE-laurels after a hot chase of #WATON, a few very preliminary thoughts on #Brexit and #genre. As my handle indicates, I came to #Twitter with an intent to talk about genre #research, but I have ended up talking about Brexit instead. 1/
Or is that indeed "instead"? A central finding of #genrestudies is that #genre is well nigh omnipresent in human culture, cognition, and communication. Thus, we think, react, and act in genre patterns, and we all have a surprising aptitude for understanding and using genre. 2/
Thus, it may never have entered your mind while discussing #Brexit (or, hopefully, the lack thereof) that you are constantly using and discussing #genre. But you are. Allow me to show you. 3/
Read 37 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Uxbridge #Eltham #Manchester #Indyref2 #Koroška #EUArmy #Köthen #remain #yousurethatswhatyouwant #propagation #Walton #Brexit #FBPE #EURef #SMB #BBC #ProjectFear #EUelections2019 #NHS #Stockton #Eccles #Newcastle #LEAVE #PeoplesVote #Christmas
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