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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I have been trying to get my head around today's #Brexit news - on the court cases and forthcoming #Yellowhammer release (or not)

So that resulted in a new, simple #BrexitDiagram just for these decisions
I can't put probabilities on these yet - I just want to get the routes and options right first.

My guess would be that "non justiciable" would be the case outcome, and "heavily redacted" the #Yellowhammer outcome - but happy for arguments to the contrary
And as ever high res images and files on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
At the end of a remarkable week, here is #BrexitDiagram V19

This one adds what *might* happen in the Supreme Court 17 September, and the consequences of that for different #Brexit outcomes
Note: I am not a lawyer, so I have hedged my bets - putting the two outcomes from the Court of Session and the High Court at .4 probability to then be confirmed by the Supreme Court, and .1 for prorogation ruled illegal and .1 for it ruled legal
Also as talk of a General Election has died down from Johnson, and opposition parties ponder what to do during prorogation, there are some changes to the probabilities of the various outcomes
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So today @oletwinofficial joins @tom_watson & Tony Blair suggesting a #PeoplesVote should happen first, and only then a General Election

But what are the pros and cons of this?
Referendum first has the *appeal* that it keeps the Tory and Labour parties together, and that there can be some Brexit 'closure' as soon as possible
But referendum first has major *downsides* - that it would need a caretaker administration for 6 months to organise, would need a longer Article 50 extension to organise, and the problems of the 2016 referendum haven't been resolved
Read 6 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
A Q to the excellent lawyers I follow here @WomaninHavana @GeorgePeretzQC @carlgardner @JMPSimor @seanjonesqc @justinbates28 @rowena_kay @JolyonMaugham

I can find one interpretation of why the judges in the Cherry case concluded differently to the Miller case in England
That is @davidallengreen’s point on the different way constitutional matters are dealt with in Scottish law

DAG also underlined the importance of the missing witness statement in *both* cases
But other than the different way constitutional matters are dealt with in Scottish law, is there anything *else* in terms of the evidence presented or the way the case was argued that additionally contributed to the success in Scotland?
Read 4 tweets

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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to yet another #Brexit thread

Have just woken up this morning to see that the Government in the Lords backed down at 01:30 and agreed to give the #BennBill time to go through all stages in the Lords

So I'm going to grab a coffee and try to find...

1/n
the business for today for both Houses

2/n
And indeed, today's the day that the Lords starts on the #BennBill

No firm commitment on timing just yet but I will hopefully be here to cover it live

3/n
lordsbusiness.parliament.uk
Read 125 tweets
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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
And let's get today's #Brexit thread started

#Letwin is expected to make an application for an emergency debate sometime after 17:30 which, if successful, will result in an emergency debate on Brexit sometime around 18:00

In the meantime the real stuff is still going on...

1/n
behind the scenes

Senior Tory rebels have been in to see Johnson and have basically come back out describing the meeting as being crap, and the Johnson is still sticking to the claim that the whip will be withdrawn from any Tory MP that votes against the government

2/n
All the current rumblings from Labour still seem to indicate that they won't back a vote calling for a General Election unless legislation is in place to stop a No Deal Brexit on 31 October, but that's still a case of wait and see

3/n
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Juha Keskinen
@MacFinn44
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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
Read 92 tweets

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