Thread by @jonworth

So why all this fuss that Johnson might actually try to get a #Brexit Deal through?

First and foremost it’s an acknowledgement that the Commons won.

The Benn Bill keeps No Deal at bay for 3 months. And even Johnson must realise that defying the Commons and refusing to extend at the European Council is a bad look.

Second, the Benn Bill *together with* opposition parties refusing Johnson his 2/3 majority makes an early election a less pleasant prospect for the Tories.

They’d have to go into an election having broken the leave-by-31-Oct pledge.

So aiming for some sort of Deal is all the Tories have right now. There’s no other way forward.

But set this in the wider context and it’s fraught with difficulties.

The only Deal Johnson could get would be harder still than May’s or it’d be the NI only Backstop, annoying Unionists.

Plus Johnson is even more of a hate figure than May was on the Labour benches.

There aren’t enough MPs who’d back a Deal.

Also the EU side is still sceptical there is even any new Deal to be had.

And even if a Deal were done (and there are rumours Johnson is threatening kicking out the ERG to force a Deal over the line), Johnson *still* cannot govern.

So he would face a General Election shortly after a Deal had been approved.

No Remainer would then vote Tory as a result of his tactics. Farage would scream betrayal that a Deal was not a real Brexit. Even some of Johnson’s own MPs and members would scream.

In short: force a Brexit Deal over the line and *then* face a General Election is not a good prospect for the Tories.

Keep this in mind as talk of a Deal increases.

And then what about the opposition?

If, when the Commons returns mid October, Corbyn were to say ok, No Deal is off the table until January, so Johnson you can have your General Election now, can Johnson actually refuse?

Having pushed so hard for a GE so recently I doubt it.

And all of this is set against the backdrop of the Supreme Court case that could knock Johnson off track, and the rumbling discontent around Yellowhammer.

So - in short - there is talk of a Brexit Deal because all other routes look worse for the Tories right now.

But look at the bigger picture and it’s still a very long shot and has dangers for Johnson.

/ends