Thread by @DKThomp

I wrote about how Millennial migration is accelerating what might be the most important demographic development in 2020s politics:

The unbelievably fast growth of liberal metros in the south.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Dems’ advantage

… in the largest Texas metros
2012: +130k
2018 midterm: +790k

.. in Atlanta metro
2012: +266k
2018 guv race: +480k

… in Phoenix
2012: -147k
2018 midterm: +51k

Don't look now but:

- In Texas: A recent poll had Trump losing to the top Dem candidates

- In Arizona: Dems picked up 90k votes in Phoenix between ’16 and ’18. Trump’s 2016 AZ margin was 90k.

- In Georgia, Atlanta's Dem margin has grown by 260k in 6 years; Trump won GA by 170k

Lotta reasons for this shift, like ppl leaving the GOP, and young southern voters breaking hard for Dems.

But the national migration trends I’ve been writing about—with more ppl leaving expensive metros for the south/west—are playing a key role, too.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

People between their early 20s and late 30s—the very large Millennial generation—are two- to three-times more likely to move than any other age.

And the fastest-growling places for domestic migration are almost entirely blue metros in red states.

I am not—NOT—predicting any southern blue wave in 2020.

There are still so many ways this could play out.

E.G.: The blue city/red state showdowns that @GrahamDavidA has written about could become an even more toxic feature of southern politics.

theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

@GrahamDavidA In the biggest picture, a blue flood in the sunbelt metros could trigger a once-in-a-half-century political realignment; loosening Republican's electoral college advantage, and ultimately forcing the GOP to fight for immigrant, minority, and urban votes.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

@GrahamDavidA Coda for migration nerds.

Total geographical mobility is down! But bc,

a) the entire (liberal) Millennial gen is in its highly-mobile years, and

b) the interstate migration we do see is directed toward red states,

current mobility trends could have a signif political effect.

@GrahamDavidA Coda 2:

Some ppl are reading today's piece as my cheerleading for liberals to leave coastal metros. Nope!

1. NYC, DC, LA (etc) are great. I've lived in 2. My sister lives in the other. Love 'em. Build more apts.

2. Southern-born Millennials are pushing those metros left, too.