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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Next week counties are to give concrete plans compatible with 1.5/2°C:

India's pledge is basically business as usual, with large growth in emissions, but that is compatible with 2°C 🤔.

Countries reducing emissions are insufficient.

1/
#UNClimateSummit nature.com/immersive/d415…
Of course, this happens because of assumptions on equity. But, for every tonne India emits another countries has to suck that carbon back out of the atmosphere.

People in favour of this extreme equity, are in favour of large-scale CO₂ removal...

2/
You disagree? Then show me how India's pledge is consistent with 2°C in emission pathways that do not have CO₂ removal?

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
To stay below 1.5°C of global warming, global CO₂ emissions need to decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030.

If OECD went to net-zero by 2030, non-OECD would have to reduce 25% by 2030.

What does this mean for raising ambition?

1/
#UNClimateSummit cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/cicer…
2. China emits 28% of global fossil CO₂ emissions, but growth has slowed substantially since the growth spurt in the 2000's.

China's pledge will unlikely lead to declining emissions by 2030, & far from a 45% reduction by 2030.

10-yr trend is still increasing emissions...
3. US emissions have declined since 2007, making its 2025 pledge of a 26-28% reduction (in GHGs of 2005 levels) a possibility.

Markets have caused a shift form coal to gas, solar, & wind, but stronger policies could bring the US to a 45% reduction in 2030.

Net-zero by 2030?
Read 8 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD

The world's leading climate science organisations joined forces to outline the latest climate trends for the #UNClimateSummit.

What does the report say?

public.wmo.int/en/media/press…
1/
2. The average global temperature for 2015–2019 is on track to be the warmest of any equivalent period on record.

It is currently estimated to be 1.1°C (±0.1°C) above pre-industrial (1850–1900) times & 0.20±0.08°C warmer than the global average temperature for 2011–2015.
3. The observed rate of global mean sea-level rise increased from 3.04 mm/yr during the period 1997–2006 to approximately 4 mm/yr during the period 2007–2016.

The accelerated rate is due to increased ocean warming & land ice melt from Greenland & West Antarctica.
Read 17 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Norway, the climate leader, has a net-zero target in 2030?

Ah, I think a few forgot to read the fine print. It has dubious parliamentary support & is an offset target (as in you take a flight, you buy an offset).

Best not to call it a net-zero target!

cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/nyhet…
Key points for 2030 carbon neutrality:
* It is based on (needs) offsets
* Norwegian climate policy is built around trading
* The government is against it
* It was a parliamentary decision under obscure circumstances
* It is not law
* Norway is not a leader, it is a follower
In terms of climate policy, Norway is increasingly moving under the EU umbrella, & a key reason is probably access to emissions trading & various offsets.

As you see in the first tweet, despite high ambitions, Norway still has higher emissions than 1990!

/END
Read 3 tweets

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