Thread by @jonworth

This thread could well be very relevant within 24 hours of writing it.

I'd welcome a few minutes of your time to consider it now, before #UKSupremeCourt makes its judgment tomorrow.

*If* prorogation is justiciable, and *if* this prorogation is either nullified, or there is somehow a way for the Commons and the Lords to sit again within the next week or so, there are two major questions to answer.

FIRST, does Boris Johnson resign, having unlawfully prorogued Parliament?

and - if the Commons is sitting again

SECOND, does it immediately try to No Confidence (VONC) Johnson if he does not resign?

As any standards of normal behaviour seem to be out of the window in UK politics just now, I think we can discount the former.

But not the latter.

Surely a Prime Minister who had unlawfully shuttered Parliament should face a VONC?

The problem is of course... the Benn Act and the danger of No Deal Brexit.

We know that the 21 Tories that lost the whip *do not* want Corbyn as Prime Minister. So they would only support a VONC if that were to lead to some interim PM and then lead to a General Election.

The danger would be that if a VONC were successful on, say, 30 Sept, and no Government were formed by 14 Oct (the 14 days foreseen in the FTPA), then UK heads for an election, who goes to the European Council on 17 Oct to ask for the Extension foreseen in the Benn Act?

The danger here is that VONC, and the lack of unity behind some PM who is not Johnson and is not Corbyn opens the door to No Deal.

However the alternative - not holding a VONC - is perhaps worse.

Johnson will have acted unlawfully, and will then have faced no immediate sanction. He will not have been tested at his point of maximum weakness.

We also still do not know how a PM Johnson proposes to deal with the obligation to extend Article 50 contained within the Benn Act. And the danger could be that Johnson chooses to prorogue Parliament again as a further time wasting tactic.

So if the Supreme Court case means the Commons sits again, should the opposition immediately table a Vote of No Confidence in Johnson or not?

There is a good chance we are going to need to answer that question sometime this week.

/ends