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This has been retweeted a bit today... and is now at over 950,000 impressions (which is a number I just can't compute). Where are we now, two months on? Thread. 1/
Much as predicted, and with Brexit still undefined (deal or no deal?) Johnson offered a pre-Brexit election. The opposition (now including rebel Tories) rejected that offer. So, going into prorogation, Johnson is still PM. 2/
There is talk (as ever, it seems) about a new deal with the EU. But as yet no specific proposals from the UK. Merkel's 30 days have passed without fanfare. The chances of an agreement with the EU, which can then pass through Parliament, appear very remote. 3/
The resolve of MPs to stop no deal is strong. But they look unlikely to agree to form a govt of national unity to attempt to resolve Brexit. The divisions between them are simply too great. 4/
So... a November/December election looks the most likely outcome. 5/
PM Johnson looks to have played a difficult hand badly. But... he has a strong lead in the polls. He will miss his Oct 31 deadline. But he will campaign to 'get it done', and will hope to leave his Brexit stubbornly undefined. 6/
His fate depends in large part on the opposition. On the one side is the Brexit Party. Will Farage et al be prepared to back him? Do they trust him, post GE, to deliver the Brexit they want? That's definitely one to watch. 7/
On the other, are the rest. As Johnson will have hoped, they are very divided. Labour and the LDs have settled on very different positions. 8/
The LDs have backed revoke. I (of course...) think that is a good move. It is a clear, strong, message, which will appeal to all those who want to make it stop. See blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/09… 9/
Labour have chosen a different route (to negotiate a better deal and put that deal to a PV against remain); for, it seems to me, two reasons. The first is the desire (need perhaps; given the differences within the Party) to appeal to both leavers and remainers. 10/
The second is that it is thought that it will somehow be fairer to settle Brexit via a PV, rather than via a GE. There is a debate to be had about that... much turns on the question asked, and the likely response of many leavers. 11/
I try to show why Labour's PV may be rejected by many leavers in this thread. A post-GE revoke may be seen to be fairer.
It is worth thinking closely about how Johnson and Farage may react... 12/
It is worth thinking closely about how Johnson and Farage may react... 12/
We look to be heading towards a high-stakes general election. If Johnson wins a majority, he will be able to pursue his agenda (on Brexit and beyond). 13/
Opposition parties must work together to try to stop him. They disagree as to the best Brexit outcome and process (much as I wish that they would unite behind the revoke message, that isn't going to happen...); but should recognise that they have a common foe. 14/
If Johnson's plan is to be stopped, the opposition have to deny him a GE victory. That will only happen if they stop sniping at each other, and start working together. 15/15
