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This prediction of #AustrianElections shows bigger loss for FPÖ (-10%) and, related, smaller gain for ÖVP (+5.7%) than earlier polls showed. Some quick thoughts. #Thread 
1. Far right is not immune to scandals. FPÖ loses more than one-third of its 2017 support. That said, it has lost little compared to European elections of May (usually lower turnout).
2. Kurz is Teflon, like his Dutch idol Mark Rutte. Both brought far right into government, saw government break because of scandal (in Dutch case manufactured), and profited from it.
3. Fact that SPÖ lost (-4.9%) in opposition to most right-wing Austrian government in postwar history, which went down on scandals, is extremely bad sign. Clearly, they don't inspire people and fail to present an attractive alternative.
4. As in many other West European countries, Greens do very well (+10.5%), although in part because of disastrous result in 2017. In fact, their 2019 score is only 1.9% higher than their 2013 score -- despite profiting from unprecedented #ClimateChange media attention.
5. Neoliberal Neos hang in there, consolidating themselves in parliament, which can pay off next election, when particularly ÖVP will probably lose.
6. I cannot see how this does not lead to continuation of ÖVP-FPÖ, but now under much stronger ÖVP dominance. Some FPÖ politicians will be sacrificed (Strache, Kickl), but normalization of far right party and policy will continue.
7. However, this time around, Kurz will present it as centrist or mainstream right, and many media will uncritically parrot him. However, Kurz has not really moderated in 2019 campaign and ÖVP remains much further to the right than under Schüssel.
8. These results are first and foremost Austrian. They are mostly consequence of #Ibizagate and of personal cult of Kurz and subcultural strength of FPÖ.
9. They do show some broader trends: (i) mainstreaming and normalization of far right parties and policies; (ii) dominance of socio-cultural dimension; (iii) personalization of politics; (iv) struggling of social democratic parties; (v) fragmentation of party system. #TheEnd
