The following is an analysis of
2016 Vote Leave Official Campaign,
scoring EVERY statement and promise.
Boris Brexit consent for items not in 2016 for/against included.
I believe there is sufficient evidence to show A50 Breach by those advocating current Brexit - Law, not GM1
2016 Vote Leave Official Campaign,
scoring EVERY statement and promise.
Boris Brexit consent for items not in 2016 for/against included.
I believe there is sufficient evidence to show A50 Breach by those advocating current Brexit - Law, not GM1
Some legal caveats then the detail. Why is this NOT @thatginamiller 1?
Simply, the event is later.
When Parliament put #A50 into law it specified the law was based on the EURef outcome. That law stands today unless rescinded.
The evidence shows "Toryit" is not based on EURef
Simply, the event is later.
When Parliament put #A50 into law it specified the law was based on the EURef outcome. That law stands today unless rescinded.
The evidence shows "Toryit" is not based on EURef
A50 notification DOES consider No Deal. But the underlying EU Directive is valid only if we act constitutionally
No EURef compliant brexit has been offered ∴ A50 is breached before any No Deal.
I refer to "TORYIT" to demarcate the Boris deal from "BREXIT" we voted for in 2016
No EURef compliant brexit has been offered ∴ A50 is breached before any No Deal.
I refer to "TORYIT" to demarcate the Boris deal from "BREXIT" we voted for in 2016
This thread is in 3 evidence based sections.
This first section focuses on the core promises of Vote Leave's main communications.
The second section looks at their briefing room
Third looks at the omissions that Toryit relies on to have consent.
Moving to Section 1. Core
This first section focuses on the core promises of Vote Leave's main communications.
The second section looks at their briefing room
Third looks at the omissions that Toryit relies on to have consent.
Moving to Section 1. Core
Result 0/3❌
❌£350m is misstated
❌We invest 0.37% of our budget in EU, that creates 5-7% of GDP. You cannot "save" if you don't invest.
❌ of the £350m PM has promised £8m extra a week. Without the "already promised" that's £1.8m
❌£350m is misstated
❌We invest 0.37% of our budget in EU, that creates 5-7% of GDP. You cannot "save" if you don't invest.
❌ of the £350m PM has promised £8m extra a week. Without the "already promised" that's £1.8m
Result 0/3❌
❌The Northern Ireland plan and lack of cross EU reciprocity reduces control
❌Removing checks and customs controls to avoid trade damage reduces border control
❌ EU judges have never overrule(s)d UK on access.
Misstatement of cross border directive interpretation?
❌The Northern Ireland plan and lack of cross EU reciprocity reduces control
❌Removing checks and customs controls to avoid trade damage reduces border control
❌ EU judges have never overrule(s)d UK on access.
Misstatement of cross border directive interpretation?
Result 0/3❌
❌"Fair". The Australian system is the cited example. That plan is unfair and chaotic. Constantly attacked, and in flux. Evidence-> seekvisa.com.au/upcoming-immig….
❌No new EU passport checking is planned
❌Skilled workers are already prioritised in the UK
❌"Fair". The Australian system is the cited example. That plan is unfair and chaotic. Constantly attacked, and in flux. Evidence-> seekvisa.com.au/upcoming-immig….
❌No new EU passport checking is planned
❌Skilled workers are already prioritised in the UK
Result 0/5❌
❌EU & NON-EU deals = 70% (80% 2020 below) of UK trade. TORYIT cancels NON-EU. EU FTA TBD
❌AU/NZ/IN put us behind EU in queue, Brexit slows progress
❌ LATM inc Brazil will not be inherited from EU
❌ TORYIT failure proven in Canada, S.Korea & JP
❌ Commonwealth EPA
❌EU & NON-EU deals = 70% (80% 2020 below) of UK trade. TORYIT cancels NON-EU. EU FTA TBD
❌AU/NZ/IN put us behind EU in queue, Brexit slows progress
❌ LATM inc Brazil will not be inherited from EU
❌ TORYIT failure proven in Canada, S.Korea & JP
❌ Commonwealth EPA
Result 0/2❌
❌ TORYIT delivers no changes to our ability to make laws, to elect, or to kick out our lawmakers.
❌ TORYIT adds complexity to steering, driving and gaining international agreements, particularly with the EU 27.
❌ TORYIT delivers no changes to our ability to make laws, to elect, or to kick out our lawmakers.
❌ TORYIT adds complexity to steering, driving and gaining international agreements, particularly with the EU 27.
Result 0/1❌
❌Vote Leave makes multiple misstatements about Turkey
So we need to judge whether TORYIT worsens any preventative border controls.
Based on 1.2 Border controls I conclude it does.
❌Vote Leave makes multiple misstatements about Turkey
So we need to judge whether TORYIT worsens any preventative border controls.
Based on 1.2 Border controls I conclude it does.
Result 0/1❌
❌See 1.1invest in this thread
The EU costs £0.
RoI of 4.63%-6.63% budget (UKGov est). Context entire Defence and Transport budgets combined
No models or predictions used Simply calculated on published UKGovData.
However, see comparative 2016 forecasts errors⏬
❌See 1.1invest in this thread
The EU costs £0.
RoI of 4.63%-6.63% budget (UKGov est). Context entire Defence and Transport budgets combined
No models or predictions used Simply calculated on published UKGovData.
However, see comparative 2016 forecasts errors⏬
Result 0/2❌
❌Most EU immigration happened at the start of the period. After families, skilled workers and students are removed TORYIT will have a negligible effect on EU immigration
❌ TORYIT future trends now available - citing NHS immigrant recruitment data
❌Most EU immigration happened at the start of the period. After families, skilled workers and students are removed TORYIT will have a negligible effect on EU immigration
❌ TORYIT future trends now available - citing NHS immigrant recruitment data
Result 0/3❌
❌ UK Gov has never bailed out EURO, our EU deal ensures that
❌ the EU system actively designs against the buil(d)t in majorities we have at Westminster (see QMV rules)
❌ TORYIT is making UK pay for its failure, cost estimated at £2000 for all #66Million of us
❌ UK Gov has never bailed out EURO, our EU deal ensures that
❌ the EU system actively designs against the buil(d)t in majorities we have at Westminster (see QMV rules)
❌ TORYIT is making UK pay for its failure, cost estimated at £2000 for all #66Million of us
Result 0/4❌
❌ English & Scottish law can't escalate to ECJ, overruling local laws impossible.
❌ Interpretation of directive application can be ruled on at the ECJ
❌ Will continue on all EU UK bilateral after TORYIT
❌Link shows rulings are appropriate
❌ English & Scottish law can't escalate to ECJ, overruling local laws impossible.
❌ Interpretation of directive application can be ruled on at the ECJ
❌ Will continue on all EU UK bilateral after TORYIT
❌Link shows rulings are appropriate
Section 1⏫ concludes here.
TORYIT delivers 0/27 of the core promises and statements of Vote Leave.
TORYIT is therefore NOT a valid interpretation of the EURef16 core promises required for
EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 compliance
TORYIT delivers 0/27 of the core promises and statements of Vote Leave.
TORYIT is therefore NOT a valid interpretation of the EURef16 core promises required for
EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 compliance
excuse omissions typo, cant be republished now
Section 2.
Reviews the Briefing Room Statements and Promises of Vote Leave.
These were clarifications of the core promises, were well communicated and are anecdotally the most memorable part of the campaign.
Take back control of borders, laws etc.
Valid to review consent.
Reviews the Briefing Room Statements and Promises of Vote Leave.
These were clarifications of the core promises, were well communicated and are anecdotally the most memorable part of the campaign.
Take back control of borders, laws etc.
Valid to review consent.
BR Structure mixed promises with assertion & trivial "facts"
Trivials not scored to help clarity.
eg £ invest since 1973 vs NHS 2015 budget is correct but trivial. Not scored to avoid overcount
False assertions are scored but double counts are removed to avoid overcount
Trivials not scored to help clarity.
eg £ invest since 1973 vs NHS 2015 budget is correct but trivial. Not scored to avoid overcount
False assertions are scored but double counts are removed to avoid overcount
2.1 Money
Result 0/2❌
🚫1973 EU Budget vs NHS 2015 Trivial, not scored
⭕️Already counted, not scored
❌NHS Hospital Claim false and not delivered
❌Regulation Claim false and not delivered
Result 0/2❌
🚫1973 EU Budget vs NHS 2015 Trivial, not scored
⭕️Already counted, not scored
❌NHS Hospital Claim false and not delivered
❌Regulation Claim false and not delivered
2.2 Economy
Result 0.5/4🥥
❌Vote Leave claim now an argument against TORYIT
❌Inaccurate claim and not delivered by UKGov
❌Quickly - False claim, based on progress to date
🥥Commercial claim accurate, rest of statement speculative and not delivered by TORYIT - removed
Result 0.5/4🥥
❌Vote Leave claim now an argument against TORYIT
❌Inaccurate claim and not delivered by UKGov
❌Quickly - False claim, based on progress to date
🥥Commercial claim accurate, rest of statement speculative and not delivered by TORYIT - removed
2.3 Borders
Result 0/5❌
❌False control of border claim, iTORYIT would make it worse
❌False criminal claim, TORYIT would make it worse
❌False non-EU migrant claim, TORYIT doesn't address
❌False ECJ claim, TORYIT would make it worse
❌False Benefit Claim, TORYIT no change
Result 0/5❌
❌False control of border claim, iTORYIT would make it worse
❌False criminal claim, TORYIT would make it worse
❌False non-EU migrant claim, TORYIT doesn't address
❌False ECJ claim, TORYIT would make it worse
❌False Benefit Claim, TORYIT no change
2.4 Security
Result 0/3❌
🚫Trivial debunked MI6 claim, removed from the score
❌False context claim, TORYIT would make it worse
❌False Terrorist claim and relates to ECHR not EU, TORYIT does not address
❌False ECHR not EU claim TORYIT does not address
Result 0/3❌
🚫Trivial debunked MI6 claim, removed from the score
❌False context claim, TORYIT would make it worse
❌False Terrorist claim and relates to ECHR not EU, TORYIT does not address
❌False ECHR not EU claim TORYIT does not address
2.5 Taxes
Result 0/2❌
❌False claim, VAT reduction can be delivered
🚫Unknown speculation, removed from scoring
❌False Claim, and potentially undermines whole TORYIT deal or far larger cross border tax avoidance and evasion issues.
Result 0/2❌
❌False claim, VAT reduction can be delivered
🚫Unknown speculation, removed from scoring
❌False Claim, and potentially undermines whole TORYIT deal or far larger cross border tax avoidance and evasion issues.
Section 2⏫ concludes here.
TORYIT delivers 0.5/16 of the core promises and statements of Vote Leave.
TORYIT is therefore NOT a valid interpretation of the EURef16 briefing promises required for
EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 compliance
TORYIT delivers 0.5/16 of the core promises and statements of Vote Leave.
TORYIT is therefore NOT a valid interpretation of the EURef16 briefing promises required for
EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 compliance
Section 3
#TORYIT relies on Consent not given explicitly at EURef16.
To avoid adding consent by Omission [Divine Rule, breaking Consent of the Governed], It must be shown that Consent could have been understood by voters in 2016.
We look at each point based on evidence.
#TORYIT relies on Consent not given explicitly at EURef16.
To avoid adding consent by Omission [Divine Rule, breaking Consent of the Governed], It must be shown that Consent could have been understood by voters in 2016.
We look at each point based on evidence.
3.1 Northern Ireland
A split in the UK internal customs union with NI was not subject to consent in 2016.
We found 0 Campaign communications
A clear case of unlawfulness exists
And many technical objections
A split in the UK internal customs union with NI was not subject to consent in 2016.
We found 0 Campaign communications
A clear case of unlawfulness exists
And many technical objections
3.2 No Deal
Allows for No Deal at any time
This breaks consent
Was never discussed in 2016
A deal was part of the last parliament's Queen's speech in which A50 was passed.
A deal was in GE17 Tory Manifesto which regardless failed to secure a majority
Allows for No Deal at any time
This breaks consent
Was never discussed in 2016
A deal was part of the last parliament's Queen's speech in which A50 was passed.
A deal was in GE17 Tory Manifesto which regardless failed to secure a majority
3.3 SM and CU
Consent is UNLIKELY to have been given
Cummings claims neither had consent
We found some mention of leaving SM in communications
We found just 1 CUU mention by Cameron late in the campaign
We found many EEA/EFTA claims by Brexiters
=
Consent is UNLIKELY to have been given
Cummings claims neither had consent
We found some mention of leaving SM in communications
We found just 1 CUU mention by Cameron late in the campaign
We found many EEA/EFTA claims by Brexiters
=
3.4 Pre Exit Negotiations
Vote Leave made promises to negotiate trade deals prior to leaving or initiating leaving. Claims survive GM1 - enacted by UKGov (Trade continuity)
We find no evidence that Parliament has rescinded this activity which would put TORYIT out of compliance.
Vote Leave made promises to negotiate trade deals prior to leaving or initiating leaving. Claims survive GM1 - enacted by UKGov (Trade continuity)
We find no evidence that Parliament has rescinded this activity which would put TORYIT out of compliance.
This is the end of Section 3
Our conclusion is that TORYIT relies on multiple breaches of consent which are unconstitutional because of the enactment of A50, not despite it
Background discussion on Consent of the Governed for Reference
Our conclusion is that TORYIT relies on multiple breaches of consent which are unconstitutional because of the enactment of A50, not despite it
Background discussion on Consent of the Governed for Reference
Conclusion.
✅TORYIT delivers against 0.5/43 Vote Leave Claims
✅TORYIT fails to establish consent in major areas required for its construction
✅No Deal and Northern Ireland provisions alone, are constitutionally invalid breaching A50
✅0.5/43 adds further reasons for Breach
✅TORYIT delivers against 0.5/43 Vote Leave Claims
✅TORYIT fails to establish consent in major areas required for its construction
✅No Deal and Northern Ireland provisions alone, are constitutionally invalid breaching A50
✅0.5/43 adds further reasons for Breach
