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, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Using my time on the Eurostar to London for "Super Saturday" to make the latest #BrexitDiagram V30

This one covers the impact of the Letwin Amendment and how that impacts overall #Brexit outcomes

This is really important - as I explain in the thread
All the media focus has been on how MPs will vote on the Deal Johnson got in Brussels - and #VoteDownTheDeal

However something else - the Letwin Amendment - is actually more important to the outcome now
The Letwin Amendment means the UK has to request an #Article50 Extension *anyway*, buying time for the Commons and Lords to scrutinise the Deal

But other things - notably the vote on the Queen's Speech - happen during this period, and that poses problems for the Government
As the Letwin Amendment has the backing of Nick Boles and Philip Hammond (essentially the same alliance that secured the Benn Act) it's highly likely to pass (I have .9 for it to pass in the diagram)
This results in overall outcomes, and compared to pre-EUCO:
1% ↔️ No Deal 31 Oct
4% ⬆️ Revoke by 31 Oct
14% ⬆️ Stalemate
48% ⬆️⬆️ General Election 2019
12% ⬆️ General Election 2020
13% ⬇️⬇️ #PeoplesVote 2020
8% ⬇️ Brexit with Deal
If the Letwin Amendment DOES NOT pass, you instead get:
1% No Deal 31 Oct
2% Revoke by 31 Oct
9% Stalemate
32% General Election 2019
8% General Election 2020
8% #PeoplesVote 2020
🚨 40% Brexit with Deal 🚨
So then folks, that is your guide for the day ahead!

Direct link to the high res PNG:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

And as ever all the detail on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
While everyone is fussing over the "Meaningful Vote" on the House of Commons order paper for Monday, it means we're forgetting what *ought* to be there:

Queen’s Speech (Motion for an Address)

(i.e. the debate on the Queen's Speech)
Here are screenshots of the Order Paper for Thursday 17 Oct and for Monday 21 Oct

PDF 17 Oct: publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201920/cm…

PDF 21 Oct: publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201920/cm…
Normally there are 5 days of debate on the content of the Queen's Speech

How it was *meant* to work this time is laid out in this tweet:


And after that there is normally a vote...
Read 7 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK.

This changes the whole arithmetic and procedure for tomorrow, if Speaker allows it to be voted on.

With Labour backing this will likely pass. So Johnson MUST ask for an extension. MPs will not be bounced into a decision.
I have also hence deleted my vote prediction tweets for tomorrow, because it is now highly likely that all of this will not actually come to a vote.

As Boles, Letwin and Hammond, P are backing the Amendment, it's odds on to pass.
Also note to #EUCO, @eucopresident, Macron, Merkel et al - that extension request is going to be coming!
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I’m anti Brexit. I think this endeavour is foolish.

But doing it this way is extremely foolish. Whatever your view of Brexit.
First: there will be no impact assessment on the costs of this Deal available to MPs tomorrow

How can MPs make a judgment without that?
Second: the text of this Deal came out yesterday. Do MPs understand it? If they don’t, does anyone fully understand it yet?

- 63 pages Revised Protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement

- 26 pages Revised Political Declaration

- 3 pages Unilateral Declaration of Consent
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Anna Ellis
@annaellis_net
Day 2 of the Supreme Court hearing on prorogation of Parliament. Yesterday's threads can be found here: THREAD 1/
This morning, the QC for the Government's case will be submitting his skeleton argument (a summary which is supported by evidence, case law, affidavits etc in folders known as bundles). This afternoon, it's the turn of the QC representing the 78 Parliamentarians in Cherry case 2/
Yesterday, we heard from the teams that *lost* the cases that are being appealed to the Supreme Court. That's because in appeals, those doing the appeal go first. Pannick spoke for the Miller case, which lost in High Court; Keen argued for Govt which lost Scottish case. /3
Read 46 tweets
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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
And let's get today's #Brexit thread started

#Letwin is expected to make an application for an emergency debate sometime after 17:30 which, if successful, will result in an emergency debate on Brexit sometime around 18:00

In the meantime the real stuff is still going on...

1/n
behind the scenes

Senior Tory rebels have been in to see Johnson and have basically come back out describing the meeting as being crap, and the Johnson is still sticking to the claim that the whip will be withdrawn from any Tory MP that votes against the government

2/n
All the current rumblings from Labour still seem to indicate that they won't back a vote calling for a General Election unless legislation is in place to stop a No Deal Brexit on 31 October, but that's still a case of wait and see

3/n
Read 108 tweets
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Turnaround & Cash Wars Veteran #FCA #ICAEW
@StuartLothian
#Brexit ALREADY costs UK £1bn pw as we Hit Holidays! @GoldmanSachs put that lower at £600m. but I'm looking at 2+% less GDP (than would have been); more Govt Debt (+interest); the growing impact of #Brexodus on jobs/taxtake; £devaln.&inflation creep, reducing Property values.1/20
@GoldmanSachs Am puzzled & mortified? that UK's so-called Major Political Parties @Conservatives @UKLabour seem umbilically disconnected? from the financial IMPACT of their recent (let's say) 'accidental collusions' and Brexit-Birth-Giving! Why the co-incidental & costly numeracy lapse? 2/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour Assuming that (eg) @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady are aware of UK's #Brexit financial haemorrhage? eg Govt Debt, Jobs/Tax, Businesses (all sizes), Individuals - there may be varying estimates? but agreement that a HUGE hit is ongoing! 3/20
Read 25 tweets
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Andy Gibson
@gandy
Brexit contradictions: a short thread. (1/15)
The EU is both too left wing and too right wing. (2/15)
The EU is undemocratic and we shouldn’t have to pay for all their elections. (3/15)
Read 15 tweets
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
Brexit Irony No.521:
Brexit would make Metropolitan Elitism worse-

The Brexit vote was against our London-centric system. So if there's an economic hit because of a Brexit London voted against, Westminster would make sure the London Banking sector survived but everywhere else...
Many of the problems that pushed people to vote Brexit had nothing to do with the EU. One of those problems was the government choosing to protect the banks who caused the crash with bailouts while ordinary people just got austerity.
The rich took irresponsible risks with the country's future, but they were protected either by moving their money away or by the government and it was those with least who suffered the most.
Sound familiar? #Brexit
Read 5 tweets

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