Will @BorisJohnson shelve his 31 October do-or-die pledge in next 24 hours? He is implying he won't. But in fact he hasn't quite said that today. He's said he won't allow "months" of delay. So if he loses vote on his timetable today, he'll face a choice of agreeing...
with Labour a couple of extra weeks of debate, or losing the bill altogether. If he loses the bill, he can probably have a general election with a one-line bill for one. So choice is between trying to get Brexit deal with a short delay, but with associated humiliation of...
missing 31 October date or campaigning in a December general election on a platform of delivering his deal if he regains power. All this is predicated on reasonable assumption that Brussels gives a delay either to pass the deal or for a general election. So tonight the PM has...
to work out what is least risky: holding a general election on the platform of his deal, or agreeing that Brexit can't happen for a few additional weeks. The risk of the election is he loses power. The risk of agreeing a delay is he loses Brexit or a Brexit he regards as...
worth the name. Tough choice. But he knows he cannot govern in any meaningful sense unless and until there is a general election. And he may feel that there will never be a better manifesto pledge for an election than that he'll deliver his negotiated Brexit deal if he wins.
