Thread by @benrileysmith

The impeachment inquiry begun exactly a month ago today.

I’ve written some analysis looking at how the process is running away from the White House.

Here are five evidence points...
telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/2…

1/ White House’s ‘no engagement’ stance is being ignored

US officials are giving testimony despite their boss’s demand not to.

W House letter saying probe was unconstitutional went on Oct 8. Lots of officials have talked since.

In short, that demand for silence hasn’t worked.

2/ Republicans are expressing concern over Ukraine scandal

Don’t want to overstate. Standard position still silence. But public grumbling growing.

McConnell denied calling Trump-Ukraine call ‘innocent’. Thune said recent testimony ‘not...good’. Romney, Murcowski.

Warning signs

3/ Republicans are attacking process, not defending behaviour

Telling the unifying position for GOP is criticising Dem handling of inquiry.

Lots of noise - storming secure room, calling it a hit job etc

But ‘process is wrong’ not the same as ‘what the president did is right’

4/ Trump’s core denials are being challenged by evidence

President claims ‘no quid pro quo’ b/w holding back Ukraine aid and securing politically helpful probes

But a) his chief of staff said aid held back for probes and b) so did his top Ukraine diplomat.

Still only 5weeks in

5/ Public opinion is moving away from Trump

*DAY INQUIRY ANNOUNCED*
51% against impeach/remove
38% for

*YESTERDAY*
44% against
48% for

So... America now backs removing Trump from office.

(HT @FiveThirtyEight poll of polls)

END