THREAD: A few early thoughts on ABB’s killing. First, it’s a really big deal. He was a symbolic leader, but also drove the Islamic State of Iraq’s survival strategy in Nineveh the last time they were down and out. Losing that experience now matters in a practical sense. 1/n
Second, I have three big questions now. A) Where did the Intel for this come from? B) Was ABB’s presence in Idlib really indicative of reconciliation efforts w/ some of the AQ groups (and does that help explain any of the intel)? C) Who will the successor be? 2/n
On the successor question: ISI established succession procedures in a 2006 book called ‘Informing the People About the Islamic State of Iraq’. There are 3 procedures: A) ABB named a successor, B) “consensus of righteous men”, C) they fight it out. 3/n
It is in our interest that ISIS have to go through that third process. Follow on raids and how friendly info ops should prevent them from transitioning cleanly. Make it messy. Confuse direction ABB gave and prevent clean decision process now. 4/n
At the end of the day, leadership removal matters more if you actually degrade leadership. The bench matters. ISI lost its #1 and #2 at once in 2010, but they had a deep bench and the political playing field was tilting toward them. So they weathered it pretty well. 5/n
