Thread by @TomaszRolbiecki

THREAD: Out of curiosity, for a year I've been recording every attack claimed by ISIS. I marked each one on a map. This heatmap is the result of my work.

Link: bit.ly/2W9csQT

Between 16/10/18 and 15/10/19, ISIS claimed responsibility for over 3000 attacks.

If you want to look after a specific attack, there's also a possibility. Each dot is an attack claimed by ISIS. Because of the number of data, this map won't work well on older computers.

Link: u.osmfr.org/m/356241/

I apologize in advance for any spelling/location error.

What's interesting, the number of attacks can be easily divided into three, roughly equal parts - About 1000 in Iraq, about 1000 in Syria and about 1000 in the rest of the world (mainly in Afghanistan, Sinai and Nigeria).

Most of those 3000 are small-scale attacks, mainly with the use of IEDs and light weapons (rifles, silenced guns, light machine guns). Because of their small scale, they usually cause a limited number of casualties.

Suicide attacks are rare, three areas with the biggest number of those in the last year were Hajin pocket, Afghanistan (Kabul and Nangarhar) and Nigeria. ISWAP, based mainly in Nigerian Borno State, only used SVBIEDs (suicide car bombs).

ISIS fighters in Iraq mainly target two types of areas: 1. Disputed between Baghdad and KRG 2. Rural, away from bigger towns.
There were also attacks in towns like Mosul and Baghdad, but the number of those, while still notable, is relatively small.

In those places, the group is still able to launch series of attacks, like during Ashura (in September), when it claimed several bombs targeting pilgrims in different parts of Baghdad.

It is simpler in Syria. Attacks targeting SDF generally take place in Middle Euphrates River Valley and near Khabur River. SAA is attacked in the desert around Sukhnah and in the south, currently around Daraa, earlier in Talul Safa area.

Despite known ISIS presence (hello al-Baghdadi, how dead are you?), there were no claims about any attacks in Idlib pocket. Once, in January, ISIS went even further and officially announced it has nothing to do with one of the bomb attacks in the city of Idlib.

In the last year, ISIS in Afghanistan has been active mostly in Kabul, Nangarhar and Kunar provinces, with presence marked in blood in Herat, Gardez, Paktia, Khost, Parwan, Kunduz and Badakhshan.

What could be surprising to some is that the main ISIS rival in Afghanistan are the Taliban. Tough battles continue in Nangarhar and Kunar and while Taliban seem to have the upper hand in this conflict, ISIS has also claimed some wins, including in Tora Bora.

It's pointless to talk about every area with ISIS presence, so let's finish with Nigeria. ISWAP, in my opinion, is the most dangerous branch of The Islamic State, capable of capturing and holding towns in Borno State, but willingly choosing to operate outside of them.

Whatever Nigerian Army's strategy is, it's just not working. The terrorists can still attack and sack towns in northern Borno and eastern Yobe. The situation has been the same since November. Vulnerable FOB's are over, but Super Camps aren't much better either.

Now that the leader and the spokesman of ISIS are both dead, The Islamic State is facing a massive challenge. Will foreign branches remain loyal? How strong will the new leadership be? There's only one answer right now - "We'll see".

One thing I haven't mentioned earlier: The number of attacks doesn't include those claimed later in al-Naba.

There are many things I haven't mentioned here (if I have, it would probably take me a whole day), so if you have any questions, please let me know in the comments.