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, 4 tweets, 1 min read
As predicted.

Wait till you hear what else a US-UK trade deal probably won't do (but just might)...

6 more weeks of this.
Coincidentally I shall be spending most of today going back over TTIP. Whatever happened to others who were involved? Many from across the EU moved almost seamlessly to work on Brexit. And some of the leaders of the opposition to TTIP now work for the Labour Party...
Very few people in the UK, including within government, showed any signs of wanting to learn from TTIP. Because it was EU led, or the UK Gov doesn't have a learning culture?

Anyone who wants to know more knows where to get hold of me...
And here's another TTIP offshoot - the discussion on the different approaches to level playing field provisions of the US and EU in trade agreements. Differences unresolved then, and for the EU a trade deal with the UK offers an opportunity for evolution
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Surprisingly both Johnson and Farage are right about the Brexit deal (and impact on a US deal) – Johnson that in theory it doesn’t prevent a US trade deal, Farage that in practice it probably does. This is the Brexit debate to come if the Conservatives win… 1/ thread
Facts as known. If the Conservatives win a majority we leave the EU on 31 January. There’s a standstill / transition period to December 2020, which can be extended for two years. For Northern Ireland a minimum of six years of frontstop. 2/
So no UK-US trade deal can take effect before the US election in 2020. This may be what Trump means by no trade deal. Possibly before 2022. Northern Ireland may not be covered in the same way as the rest of the UK. But countries have FTAs with US and EU so in theory we can… 3/
Read 20 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Here we go again with a Prime Minister sending out misleading messages about a negotiation with the EU, which might sound good now but lines up further problems to come. Not only unrealistic, but bad for UK - would give us 10 months to decide many years of future economic policy
And yes a deal with the EU will hamper a US deal. Ask their negotiators. Now this may all be irrelevant to the election, but reality denial has been a major problem in Brexit so far.
Could the next interviewer of the PM please ask him to name a deal the EU has concluded in 10 months. Also which regulations he wishes to align with the EU and which he doesn't. Also whether he will choose EU or US food standards.
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Keep repeating - to get a US trade deal will require UK concessions. Most likely that will be food standards, but there may be demands on the NHS as well. If we don't want to give either we should probably pick some less demanding trade partners.
And similarly an EU FTA. Articles like the one cited here just keep perpetuating the idea of the UK holding all the cards, rather than admitting the EU expect UK to be rule takers (US officials also believe UK will follow EU rules under an FTA)
All this about Free Trade Agreements means Farage and Trump are not completely wrong about the Brexit deal and a future US trade deal. They exaggerate of course, but if the UK ends up with an EU FTA it will be very difficult for the US to get what they want from us
Read 4 tweets

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S L Lothian #CashWars #Veteran FCA
@StuartLothian
#OpportunityCost is the aggregate net cost of doing something, vis a vis 'not doing it' at all.

The initial project, option & prospect of #Brexit came with huge opportunity costs, which were too easily pre-discounted as #ProjectFear. 1/
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1 - Yes, we want to grow it! #UK #Automotive exports £1 billion engines to Turkey, twice as much as the entire North-American region and second only to the EU. British engines are assembled into passenger cars and CVs exported from Turkey to the UK and other European countries.
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
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@C_Barraud
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
At Chequers @theresa_may, alongside @POTUS, says she thanked him for expelling 60 intelligence officers from #Russia following Salisbury nerve agent incident.
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Marianne Petsinger
@MPetsinger
My thoughts on #Trump's bombshell interview w/ The Sun: He puts his finger at inconvenient truth: tradeoff between regulatory alignment w/ EU post-Brexit and regulatory alignment w/ US as part of US-UK #trade deal. But he goes about it in undiplomatic way that isn't helpful.
Trump's explosive interview calling US-UK trade deal off is likely part of negotiation tactic. Throw UK off balance and then extract more concessions in future negotiations.
Still a lot more on trade for T May to talk to Trump about: US steel and aluminium tariffs and looming tariffs on cars and automotive imports. T May should position herself as bridge between US and EU.
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