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For fans of Argentina... thegeneraltheorist.com/2019/11/12/arg…
Basically, normally exchange rate depreciations are reflected in increasingly negative “other items net” at BCRA. But the recent sell off in ARS coincided with an increase in BCRA OIN, implied losses at the central bank.
Bit the right chart above provides a clue to what is going on. The value of FX claims on the government, measured in USD, fell sharply.
Decomposition by sector, yes NFA (reserves) fell to defend the exchange rate, but FX claim on the government fell sharply also... why?
It seems the value of FX claims on the government were reduced sharply in value, hidden when measured in ARS, since at least 2017.
Also reported in the annual financial statement over the summer, BCRA chose to report claims on government at market price and not held to maturity. Thus, when ARS sold off in early August they took losses in their FX claims on government, as seen in weekly balance sheet
And so, while in th past valuation gains were booked as profit and monetised, my previous beef, no longer is this the case...
Does this mean government debt is lower? No. First, they still hold this as a liability to be serviced, the central bank just thinks it’s only worth 20% of face value. Second, ....
...regardless, a proper DSA for Argentina should consolidate BCRA with the government, so this is doesn’t matter. The consolidated government is what matters, and any sustainability exercise needs to allow for recap of the central bank and a full assessment of the State.
Separately, it’s amusing to note how the ringfenced FX deposits of the government initiated under the IMF program have been nearly depleted.
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