The protracted crisis in the #NHS is widely believed (outside of liberal circles) to have been caused by immigration. This view is supported by ministers' attempts to link the problem to an unanticipated spike in the level of demand. This is a misunderstanding. [thread]
Of course, growth in the population (from immigration or an increase in the birth rate) increases demand for NHS services. However, immigration also increases tax receipts - which can be used to increase funding. Unfortunately, since 2010, this has not happened.
After nine years of very low funding growth for the NHS (with per capita increases cut from 4.4% to just 0.1% a year since 2009-10, in the teeth of rising unit costs), the UK now spends relatively little on healthcare - about 1/3 less than the mean for other large economies.
Consistent with this, the UK employs slightly fewer nurses (8.2 per 1000 population) than the EU average (9.0) and many fewer doctors (2.8 v 3.7), and it has less recourse to key technologies - e.g. fewer computed tomography scanners (8.0 per million population v 31.5).
Multiple independent forecasts predicted the recent increases in demand. It was government's job to ensure the level of supply could meet it. Rising tax receipts - including those attributable to a rising population - could have allowed this. The government made other choices.
