Are Germany and France geopolitical rivals now? Thread.
For Macron, a radically changing international environment calls for radical measures. He wants to lead Europe into a post-American future. Macron sees the (partial) US disengagement as an opportunity: to build a (French-led) autonomous Europe. /1
At the center of Macron's strategy lies Russia: "If we want to build peace in Europe, to rebuild European strategic autonomy, we need to reconsider our position with Russia." (all quotes from the Economist interview) /2
Full European strategic autonomy requires a Russia that is not hostile and not threatening. That's why Macron wants to "rebuild … an architecture of trust and security" with Russia. /3
For Macron, Russian aggression can be overcome because it is based on a misunderstanding. Moscow turned aggressive and revisionist, in Macron's narrative, not because of Russian ambition but because Russia has been cornered by an America that is driven by its "superego." /4
Yet Europe has accepted to be perceived as America's "Trojan horse" by Russia. A mistake Macron wants to correct, with the help of Orbán. Macron had "a very long discussion" with him on Russia, he is "quite close to our views", may even help "convince the Poles a little more". /5
For Macron Nato has become anachronistic, or "brain dead", because Russia is not an enemy anymore -- unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War -- but a future friend and partner. And Nato is useless in the South, the region that matters for Macron. /6
Macron's strategic ideas have forced Germany to come out with its views.The chancellor, the defense minister, the foreign minister have pushed back quite sharply. For Germany, NATO is not just the past, but also the future — as the main framework for European defense. /7
In the words of defense minister and CDU party head Kramp-Karrenbauer (@akk): "All proposals strengthening Europe's ability to act in the area of security and defence are strengthening the European pillar of Nato." /8
@akk With this very public exchange of views, the French-German strategic divide has become visible. Both countries disagree about the future role of the US in Europe, and with it about Nato, both disagree about the relationship with Russia. /9
@akk These divisions are not new. Germany and France for decades had very different geopolitical views. Yet in the past these differences simply didn't matter. On geopolitics, they didn't have to agree among themselves. They had to agree with Washington. /10
@akk Yet with Trump, US strategic leadership is gone (but NOT the US role as protector of Europe, especially at the Eastern flank, providing deterrence against Russia). /11
@akk Strategically, Europeans are suddenly alone at home. A new situation. Germany and France are used to cooperate closely, and very successfully, on EU matters. But not on wider geostrategy. They are nervous and stressed. /12
@akk France has an ambitious, disruptive president who wants to shape Europe's future. Yet what he proposes is just a traditionalist French, "realist" agenda, wrapped in the language of European federalism (which is appealing to some influential audiences). /13
@akk Yet instead of unifying Europe, this agenda is highly controversial in Europe. It is not shared by most countries in the East and the North, who want to keep the US in, in order to keep Russia out, and who don't want to entirely focus on the South, on France's war on terror. /14
@akk That puts Germany on the spot. Berlin needs to lead on the pushback against Macon's geopolitical agenda. Something that in the past a US president would have done — quickly and easily. But with Trump, the US is not playing this role anymore. /15
@akk All this will become more visible, relevant and pressing in the next weeks, with the Nato summit in London on 3-4 December and the Ukraine-Normandie meeting in Paris on 9 December. /16
@akk What you've just read is laid out in more detail on my website (premium content). germanysworld.substack.com/p/briefing-are…
