Thread by @JenniferMerode

Labour’s manifesto for "the final say on Brexit" - is it realistic? A few thoughts.

Labour’s main pitch is to negotiate “a sensible deal” in three months and put it to a public vote within six. That means a Brexit extension until July 31 2020.
2.

Many in the EU will throw up their hands in despair at yet more Brexit discussion and delay, but I still cannot see any single member state taking the historic decision to kick the UK out by vetoing extension.
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Can Labour negotiate a deal in three months? Sounds doable, esp as Labour want to avoid hard border on Ireland and move closer to EU. Diplomats have said political declaration could be rewritten overnight/over a couple of days.
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Take Labour’s rhetoric with pinch of salt. “We will rip up the deeply flawed deal ...” A lot of “the deal” is the May deal: money, citizens' rights etc and Labour would keep that. Not clear what Labour want on backstop, but might be aiming for return to May's all-UK plan
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EU would say yes to customs union with UK and allow some kind of consultation on free-trade deals. Rhetorically a government could brand that as “joint UK-EU trade deals” but the UK would still be out of room when EU27 decided on a trade talks mandate.
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Labour’s deal is much more reassuring for EU, as promises to match EU standards on workers’ rights, environment and consumer protection as they evolve (‘dynamic alignment'). But negotiating close relationship cd be tricky. EU still wary of giving insider benefits to outsider.
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Key line if Conservatives form a minority gov or have narrow minority. “Labour will never accept an outcome that puts rights and standards at risk.” So Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit FTA could meet same fate in the Commons as Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.
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Labour wants access to European Arrest Warrant (whatever that means) and EU crime-fighting databases. Fine in theory and EU keen for post-Brexit security co-operation, but lots of tricky details - e.g. no non-Schengen, non-EU country has ever joined SIS database for example.
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Labour will abolish settled status, but not clear to me how government would then differentiate between pre Brexit and post Brexit EU nationals living and working in UK. Many other EU member states have ID cards and require registration so this isn’t an issue.
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And if the UK stays.... Labour will “lead the way” in giving the EU “a new political direction”. Welcome to the club: everyone from Emmanuel Macron to Viktor Orbán wants to give the EU a new political direction. Unfortunately nobody agrees which direction.
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For me this is the most fanciful part of the whole Brexit manifesto and reveals long-standing UK gov myopia on fact that EU works on alliances, not bossed by one country.
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Also misreads Brexit psychology. Abandoning divorce at 11th hour doesn’t mean the honeymoon days are back. The UK will have to spend time and political capital rebuilding damaged relationships with EU institutions and member states (leave or remain).
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And don’t underestimate how wary EU27 are about a second referendum. For some EU insiders the 52:48 for remain is a nightmare scenario. Concern that Brexit poison remains in British politics infecting the EU. For some, a regretful view that Brexit has to happen.
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OK TLDR: Labour’s renegotiation plan doable, but a large number of difficult issues will have to be ironed out in phase two (as of course they will under Boris Johnson).
The EU will approach any Brexit delay and a second referendum with a great deal of trepidation.
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